MODEST PARTICIPATION OF OPPOSITION

2006-10-20

Pavel Kirylaw

The leaders of major opposition parties and unregistered pro-democracy NGOs have agreed to coordinate campaigns during the upcoming local elections. Those on the list of the opposition are: the Belarusian Popular Front, the United Civic Party, the Belarusian Party of Communists, Belarusian Social Democratic Party, Belarusian Social Democratic Hramada, Belarusian Women’s Party “Nadzeya,” unregistered Malady Front, and several others.

The oppositionists held consultations last week, immediately after the president scheduled the local elections for January 14, 2007. But, intrigue is not there, as the opposition can count on only several dozens of seats in the local soviets. In fact, the opposition joins the campaign with the Olympic principle in mind: participation. Knowing that the count will be flawed anyway, they want to use this opportunity for reaching out to the population. The authorities say, in turn, that there will be no sensations, as their political adversaries are too far from a simple man.

It is worth noting that the opposition plans to put forward only about 850 candidates, who will campaign on a national platform. In summer, the opposition said there would five-time more candidates. But, even this is too little, as a total of 22,641 deputies need to be elected. Moreover, a major part of the opposition candidates will prefer to run in large towns, judging by the previous experience of local elections.

Incidentally, in 2003 the average competition to the lowest-level soviets was 1.1 candidates per seat, while 1.6 contenders ran for regional soviets. In the capital Minsk, an average of three candidates competed for 55 mandates. In addition, in Minsk, oppositionists would compete between each other in many constituencies. That situation is very likely to recur.

But, if the opposition thinks of changing the power by bringing the masses of people to the streets in Minsk, it still makes sense to stake on an active political campaigning in the capital city. On the other hand, revolution, so much aspired for by the opposition, should have a fairly serious moral and political support in the provinces. Otherwise, a quick counter-revolution can fight back like it happened in Ukraine.

The opposition said numerously that the youth – not the elderly – would at this time stand up and fight. But, during the last local elections, voters gave their preferences mainly to the more experienced candidates. Only 7.15 percent of the young candidates (under 30 years) were voted in.

Judging by the September returns, the Zerkalo-Info sociological center concludes that voter turnout is expected to be high. “In our previous similar polls, the number of those who were reluctant to vote was as twice as much. Presently, only eight percent of those polled said they would not go to the ballot. Out of 22 percent of those uncertain, most of them said they would definitely go to the polling stations,” the pollster director Leanid Mikheychykaw said. So, it is very likely that the turnout record of 73.4 percent during the past local elections could be broken.

We remind that the main distinguishing feature of the upcoming elections is that they will be organized under a new legislation, passed right ahead of the ballot. For instance, the ballot will be carried out in one round, with those collecting more votes to be declared a winner.

It is worth noting that before the amendments to the Electoral Code were enacted, the authorities stressed that the new procedures would save the taxpayer money. But, after they became effective last week, political reasoning followed.

In the view of Mikalay Lazavik, secretary of the central election commission, the reduction of the time span of the vote “would promote social and political stability in society.” “Any electoral campaign distracts voters from their daily social and economic problems and drags them into the political struggle. Sometimes, such political campaigns produce a negative impact on the solution of other social and economic issues,” he said.

Perhaps, elections should be cancelled for good so that not to prevent the people from accomplishing their labor deeds?

By the way, some opposition forces, namely the Conservative Christian Party led by Zyanon Paznyak, are boycotting the ballot. Their representatives do not rule out that the local elections could be combined with a referendum, threatening with the incorporation of Belarus by Russia. But, given the current deterioration of relations with Moscow, it appears to be unlikely.

In his September appeal to the people and the opposition leaders, jailed Alyaksandr Kazulin declared Lukashenka out of law and asked, among other issues, the question: “How can the opposition take part in elections, declared by an illegitimate president?” But, he is presently proposing to use the elections as an opportunity to tell the people that Lukashenka is illegitimate. The Belarusian Social Democratic Party led by Kazulin is participating.

The Belarusian Social Democratic Hramada led by Stanislaw Shushkevich is also to take part, though Shushkevich himself recently said that the opposition “should stop pouring water on the regime’s mills,” or, in other words, to skip the elections. In his view, the new electoral legislation makes the chances of the opposition even more ghostly. “Only fools could go for this election,” Shushkevich said. His party reasons the present change of stance by saying the boycott would make sense only if it were an all-out campaign.

Somehow, the opposition does not reflect on how their supporters perceiving such political zigzags.