Opposition bosses are planning a revolution remake

2006-11-25

By Alyaksandr KLASKOWSKI

The headquarters of the united pro-democracy forces deployed a new slogan “We Will Be Back at Kalinowski Square at 20:00 on March 19, 2007!” The message will be spread nation-wide during the upcoming local elections campaign.

Kastrychnitskaya Square in the central Minsk was unofficially renamed Kalinowski Square last spring, when the opposition activists stayed in tents protesting against the results of the presidential elections. The logic of the opposition is clear. The first anniversary of the street protests against the official results of the presidential elections is a convenient occasion for a new massive protest action.

Will it become massive indeed?

The former presidential contender Alyaksandr Milinkevich stressed in his interview with The Viewer the symbolic meaning of the planned event. Regardless of the number of participants, the action is designed to demonstrate that “we, as a democratic community, do not recognize the official results of the presidential campaign and call for a new election.”

In this regard, political commentator Valery Karbalevich told: “The opposition needs to go public from time to time and stage mass actions in order to maintain the vigor of its supporters and the pro-democracy part of the population. The “hot spring” anniversary is indeed the chance, which the opposition should not loose.”

At the same time, it would not be easy for the pro-democracy activists to combine two tasks at the local elections, in the view of political analyst Yury Chavusaw. In the local campaigns, the electorate is normally concerned with the daily social and economic problems in their communities. So, it will be difficult for the opposition to push a revolutionary scenario during the campaign.

In addition, it will be over two months – a whole dead season – between the voting day on January 14 and the anniversary of the presidential elections. People will have enough time to forget all the calls from the opposition. It needs resources and targeted actions before and after the local elections in order to maintain the political temperature until March 19. Does the opposition possess this potential and a relevant plan?

“The idea is good, but it might end up in profanation,” expert Uladzimir Rowda told.

In his view, the youth that was the driving force of the protests last spring is greatly frustrated with the sluggishness and red tape of the opposition executives, who repeat in many ways the vices of the authorities. So, the calls for the youth to come out to the streets again might not be heard. “The youth feel that they could be used again only for the sake of a checkmark,” says Uladizmir Rowda.

On his part, Alyaksandr Milinkevich admits that the opposition coalition has yet to implement the idea of a wide movement for changes. He adds that he is now personally busy with this job. Milinkevich is still confident that the coalition needs a strong leader with the large authority.

It is worth noting that last spring Milinkevich did enjoy a strong support, with his status authorized by the congress of pro-democracy forces. Finally, the political environment was special. At the peak of any electoral campaign, when there is the lack of legitimacy of the old authority and emotions are high, the square can play a decisive role.

It is still a lot of time until March 19, 2007 and anything can happen. However, the probability is high that the there will be no revolutionary situation. In other words, many people will not have enough incentives to run into troubles and risk being detained and expelled from college or fired from work.

Moreover, the image of Milinkevich has faded, while others have clashed in the struggle for the leadership in the opposition.

In particular, Anatol Lyabedzka, the leader of the United Civil Party, is among those who push most actively for the idea of staging the square remake. Perhaps, he will be the one to take over the palm of supremacy?

Yet, some young people who share the democratic views are ready to get to the streets not in respond to the call of political leaders, but to the call of their hearts. They stress that the tent camp emerged on the square last March due to the initiative of civil society, not the opposition headquarters.

The problem of the coalition’s isolation from the masses of unengaged supporters of democratic changes still remains acute.