Opposition congress hardly to become a significant event

2006-11-15

Alyaksandr KLASKOWSKI

The authorities make it clear that they try to run election campaigns without frenzy. Why should political issues agitate the people? The opponents of the regime have a completely opposite purpose. But, the second Congress of Pro-democratic Forces, organized by the opposition parallel to the local elections, is hardly to stir up the general public.

“The election campaign has kicked off in a very quiet way,” the government’s news agency BelTA quoted Lidziya Yarmoshyna, chairperson of the central election commission, as saying. In an earlier development, the head of state said: “We need local soviets that are non-politicized, non-partisan, not shouting, not noisy.” Thus, the authorities have spoken out their super task of preventing society from getting politicized.

Sometimes it seems that the ruling bosses could easily refuse from any elections at all. But, the images of the “government for the people” and “the nationally elected president” prevent them from doing so. You have to stick to the ritual for the sake of legitimization.

Political opponents of the authorities have been almost chased into the underground. Their possibilities and resources are very limited, as the power plays a no-rule game. Perhaps, we should not take pokes at the opposition. But, it has become too often when we get an impression that from among all the possible scenarios they do choose the worst one. Or it turns out that the road to hell is again paved with good intentions.

The idea sounds good: to stimulate the participation of the oppositionists in the local elections, using the one-in-two principle. In other words, 300 signatures collected to nominate the candidates for the local councils, would also entitle them to becoming a delegate to the second Congress of Pro-democratic Forces. In the view of the opposition bosses, they thus create an incentive for the activists to reach out to the people and promote the democratic values in the masses.

However, there have already been signs of the internal wars overshadowing the noble idea of communication with the population. We wrote earlier that the United Civic Party accused Milinkevich’s team of recruiting the membership from the other political parties into the new movement in order to build an impressive faction at the congress. The probability is high that signatures will be collected from among the “tested” electorate. It means there will be no breakthrough in the communication with the mainstream.

In terms of ideology and political strength, the second congress a priori loses to the first one. In the fall of 2005, the super task was crystal clear: to pull together all the democratic forces and nominate the strongest and single alternative to incumbent Lukashenka. The aim was to win the ballot. The other story was that some believed in that sincerely, while others were simply making empty declarations. Generally, there was the peak of public interest and inspiration.

What about now?

It looks like some sort of an inter-party function. In his interview with RFE/RL, Alyaksandr Milinkevich had already expressed alarm that it would end up in being “a narrowed congress”, or “a congress of political forces and the people who take part in the elections.” In his words, “many NGO activists, writers, journalists, businessmen, etc. will not be among the congress delegates.”

In the view of political commentator Valery Karbalevich, those who spearhead the forum want to solve at least two tasks.

Firstly, they want to reformat the executive bodies of the coalition by squeezing out the representatives of virtual organizations.

Secondly, they want to sort out the status of “the first among the equal”, who Alyaksandr Milinkevich is today. Many believe that the title -- “the leader of the Belarusian opposition” -- used informally by his entourage is too high-flown in the present realities. Wouldn’t it be better to make the chairman of the political council of the united democratic forces simply a functionary, a technical figure?

Additionally, the party leaders seem to be willing to obtain a free hand. The presidential elections have been lost. A new serious battle for power is still far away. So, why should they work hard now for the former “single candidate?”

From the standpoint of the opposition elite, these issues are really acute. But, they are of purely internal nature. For hundreds of thousand of the democratically thinking citizens, whom the party leaders have long since wanted to involve into a wide movement for changes, this permanent reshuffle of the executive bodies within the coalition makes no difference.

The second congress is hardly to become a significant event for the Belarusian public. Moreover, it could deepen further the split within the opposition camp.