First ticks

2006-03-14

Early voting started on March 14 in Belarus' presidential election. The country thereby entered the stage of reaping the electoral harvest. By putting ticks on ballot papers, voters will little by little fill the political bins of the candidates. One is to gain more, another less.

However, opponents of the incumbent leader - who is regarded by experts as the odds-on favorite - reiterate that there will be no honest vote counting. But Aleksandr Lukashenko denies all accusations of planned ballot-rigging, insisting that he will have no need to falsify the election results, as he enjoys overwhelming support among voters.

Nonetheless, the early voting procedure, spread by Belarus' electoral regulations over a five-day period, is considered by both domestic and foreign critics of the regulations as one of the main tools of ballot-rigging, noting the impossibility to properly monitor the voting process during this period.

Under Belarus' Electoral Code, early voting is for those "unable to be present at their place of residence on the polling day" (March 19 in this particular case). In fact, any voter can vote early without giving any reasons on the sole condition of showing his/her passport. According to the election authorities, 14.3 percent of all registered voters cast their ballots during the early voting phase of the previous presidential election in 2001. Independent observers estimated the percentage of those voting early at almost 30 percent. They said that in some places, the number of those who voted before the main polling day (September 9) exceeded 50 percent. The Nezavisimoye Nablyudeniye (Independent Observation) group noted that the proportions of the officially announced numbers of the ballots for Lukashenko and for his main rival, the opposition coalition's nominee Vladimir Goncharik, during the early voting period were radically different from the results of the polling day. For instance, out of the 422 people who took part in early voting at Precinct No. 1 in Minsk's Pervomaisky district, 98.1 percent allegedly voted for Lukashenko and only 1.4 percent for Goncharik, whereas out of the 342 people who voted on September 9, 50.6 percent voted for the incumbent and 26.9 percent for the opposition candidate.

"Given observation data, one can presume that a certain part of the ballots put into boxes during early voting were then replaced," said Vladimir Gudeyev, a leader of the group.

He noted numerous instances of voting under compulsion during the five-day early voting period. Observers reported 314 such instances. In addition, he said, there was massive evidence of violations of the rules for keeping ballot boxes and of illegal interference with them. As many as 435 such instances were reported.

That is why Lukashenko's opponents strongly recommend that people should vote only on Sunday, March 19. Moreover, Aleksandr Milinkevich calls on his supporters to gather on a central square in Minsk on the night of this date to wait for the official election results there. Aleksandr Kozulin, whose opposition spirit and determination were fueled by his beating on March 2, has joined in the call. Both explain that if the election results are rigged, people should be together to defend their choice and votes.

Lukashenko and his government interpret these plans as an intention to foment a "colored revolution."

The state media's campaign of glorifying the incumbent and blasting the opposition has now peaked. The opposition candidates and their teams have no access to the broadcast media to express their view and answer the accusations. Under these conditions, they apply public meetings with voters and house-to-house canvassing. Despite counteraction from authorities and arrests, increasingly more people attend meetings with Milinkevich and Kozulin. The candidates insists that the nation has woken up, whereas the incumbent calls their efforts laughable and vows that he will not allow anybody to disturb the peace.

It is hard to judge the actual sentiments in society, as almost no independent public opinion surveys are conducted. However, the election process will reveal much. The truth will always out. Both the authorities and the opposition and foreign countries, including the West and Russia, will have to reckon with the real results of the vote.