Third-term headache

2006-04-4

By Aleksandr Klaskovsky, editor of the site

Analysts speculate that the postponement may have been caused by the state of Lukashenko's health, as there were traces of deep emotion on his face when the reelected leader appeared in public on March 28 for the first time after his triumphant press conference a week before.

However, the swearing-in ceremony was most likely postponed because the authorities recalled that under the Electoral Code, candidates had 10 days following the election date to file their complaints with the Supreme Court.

In any case, hundreds of jailed protesters would not have been a good background for the re-inauguration. Let at least their jail terms have been over by it.

It is evident that political activity will now be on the decline. On March 28, Lukashenko praised the siloviki for their vigor. "All political battles are over. Order has been reestablished in the country despite certain outbursts," he concluded.

Further developments will depend on several factors. The triumphator is facing a serious dilemma. On the one hand, he has the temptation of eradicating dissent completely. On the other hand, the scale of the recent protests is evidence that despite repressive measures, there is some civil society in the country and it would be dangerous to ignore it. In addition, economic necessities make him think about some liberation.

The external factor also should not be disregarded. The West naturally condemned the brutal breakup of street protests, whereas Moscow equally predictably came out in defense of its ally. However, the Russian elite has its own viewpoint. Analysts predict a fierce fight for Beltransgaz, Belarus' gas pipeline network eyed by Gazprom. On this basis, Brussels may try to find some common ground with Moscow in approaches to the Belarus issue.

In any case, the West will continue to support Belarus' pro-democratic forces. Although its opportunities are rather limited, since the country's authorities are seeking to seal up all channels.

The political opposition expects a long struggle. Aleksandr Milinkevich, leader of the pro-democratic coalition, suggests forming a board public movement like Lech Walesa's Solidarnosc in Poland. But in the 1980s, there was a grave economic situation in the neighboring country. The Belarusian authorities have been ensuring relative well-being for most of the population, although with the help of Russia's preferences.

The opposition's slogans have not become the slogans of a majority.

Milinkevich admits that the share of firm advocates of change accounts for some 30 percent. He has declared the formation of a broad popular pro-democratic movement. But skeptics say that there have been a lot of such declarations in the past but all of them have sunk in the Belarusian swamp.

On the other hand, Lukashenko himself stressed, although in the heat of emotion, that a dictatorship would be impossible at the center of Europe in the 21st century.