Central election commission issues four candidate certificates

2006-02-17

By Aleksandr Klaskovsky, editor of the site

In yet another generous move, the central election commissiongranted candidate status to all the four presidential contenders that had handed in the required quantity of ballot-access voter signatures. At a ceremony held at the Palace of the Republic in Minsk on February 17, apart from the incumbent president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, the commission handed a candidate certificate to Sergei Gaidukevich, a member of the House of Representatives; Aleksandr Kozulin, leader of the Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Hramada"; and Aleksandr Milinkevich, united opposition forces' nominee.

Although election officials were saying in a severe voice that there was a black mark against some of the candidates for violations of electoral regulations, such as early electioneering, the commission found all reported irregularities pardonable.

The commission ignored a letter to the central election commission by Aleksandr Voitovich, who suggested that Aleksandr Lukashenko should be denied access to the ballot because, according to him, the incumbent had no right to remove the constitutional two-term limit on the presidency through a referendum in 2004, as Article 78 of the constitution reads that the list of questions that may not be put to a referendum shall be specified by law, which is the Electoral Code, and the Code's Article 112 bans "questions concerning the election and removal of the President of the Republic of Belarus" from being brought to a referendum.

The former parliamentary speaker predictably turned out to be a voice crying in the wilderness.

However, the election authorities granted candidate status to not only the incumbent but also all the other applicants, ostentatiously displaying leniency toward the opponents of the head of state just like they did while registering contenders' nomination groups. Independent political analysts say that it would be advantageous to the incumbent if there were many names on ballot papers, as this would scatter the votes of people who do not like Lukashenko and diminish potential protests: people's intention to protest will be weaker if an alternative to Lukashenko is not personified by one person.

Now that the contenders have entered the electioneering stage, each of them have the right to have two half-hour pre-recorded appearances on Belarusian Television (First National Channel) and the First Belarusian Radio Channel, and publish his election program in seven national newspapers. Each of them is to receive a highly modest amount, the equivalent of some $27,000, from the coffers for electioneering purposes. However, analysts say that this formal equality will not prevent the entire state information and propaganda machine from working daily and hourly for the benefit of the incumbent.

In reply to persistent accusations of election frauds, Lukashenko said not long ago that he has no need to falsify the results of the vote because even surveys by his opponents suggest that the percentage of those ready to vote for him is enough to win in the first round. His popularity rating is really high, but analysts predict that in order to obtain a nice figure to substantiate allegations of his extremely high popularity, the authorities will resort to "special means" anyway.

Critics, including those among officials of international organizations, say that the forthcoming election is going to be non-transparent and unfair, noting the lack of the opposition's representatives on election commissions, the five-day early voting procedure, which makes almost impossible to efficiently monitor the voting process, restrictions on observers' activities, the government's monopoly of broadcasting media and the ensuing obvious inequality of the candidates' electioneering opportunities.

These shortcomings have repeatedly been highlighted by international experts, including those of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, but Minsk has ignored their recommendations.

The above-mentioned peculiarities of the Belarusian election process - plus inevitable excesses in the provinces - are sufficient to provide a solid argumentation basis for the opposition and international organizations to declare the election undemocratic and unfair.

Meanwhile, authorities reiterate that they will not allow disturbances prompted by objections to the official results of the vote. However, opponents of Lukashenko are rather cautious: some prefer to speak about an abstract spiritual revolution and others say that the incumbent's sweeping victory would be logical.

Experts who are skeptical about the chances of the spiritual revolution on March 19 concentrate their analysis on the post-election political process in the country, speculating whether the opposition will manage to win a place in the legal political arena or fade away into nothing, and in which direction the current government system will evolve, toward the strengthening of dictatorship or the loosening of screws under the pressure of economic factors.

Anyhow, the forthcoming election retains significance and will surely have a profound effect on the development of the country.