Moscow Observes the Rite of Supporting "Closest Ally"

2006-03-17

By Andrey Fyodaraw

Since that forum had a formal task of obtaining popular approval for the government's plan for the following five years, the president's remarks on international affairs reveal what kind of foreign policy Belarus will have in the future, if the incumbent stays in power.

First of all, Lukashenka spoke at length about dangers of the modern world and condition of the Belarusian armed forces, before he actually started to describe the country's international relations. This show what kind of sentiments are dominating within the Belarusian authorities. While blaming the US for its aspiration toward world supremacy, he comes out with the assurance that "together with our Russia, our Armed Forces are making sure that border of our Union are inviolable and can contain any aggression."

And of course, Lukashenka again articulates the cliche about Belarus' "multi-vector" foreign policy. However, he immediately adds that "they [apparently Western countries] cannot teach us human rights now. Let them sort out things at home. They covered with blood the Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Yugoslavia."

According to the Belarusian leader, "the Poles are going to dance to the US's pipe for 110 billion dollars" and Ukraine, Baltic states and Poland channel into Belarus millions of dollars, and "embassies get cash, bring it here and distribute."

Along with the obvious fear of hypothetical armed aggression, Lukashenka pledges to continue the same course. No doubt, the government will continue to inculcate the psychology of besieged camp inhabitants. In addition, restrictive administrative measures are likely to be taken with regard to the travel of Belarusians abroad and visits of foreigners to Belarus. Finally, embassies that cause particular discontent with the head of state may find it difficult to operate in the country.

Nothing of the kind threatens Russia. Its support for "the closest ally" is nearly as high as it could be. It comes from actually all levels, as it can be seen in recent visits to Minsk by the speaker of the State Duma, prime minister and mayor of Moscow. The Russian foreign minister has warned the West that it should not exert pressure on Belarus and interfere in the country's domestic affairs in the run-up to the presidential election. The pro-Kremlin political analyst Gleb Pavlovsky showed an interview with Lukashenka in his program on NTV.

Vladimir Putin alone has not yet shown his favor, but one cannot think of course that his subordinates would provide support to the Belarusian leadership without his consent. However, the Russian president may put a final touch on this idyllic picture, for example, by congratulating Lukashenka on his "elegant" victory even before the official results are publicly announced.

Still, it has to be said that support from Moscow can hardly exert substantial influence on the sentiments of Belarusian voters. Most of them must have already decided who they will vote for. Those who are still hesitant will listen to different signals, because ritual visits and statements of high-ranking Russian officials to Belarus have become too commonplace by now.

Thus, the Kremlin cannot play a significant role in favor of Lukashenka in this specific situation.

As for the Belarusian opposition, it should have never counted on support of Moscow. The only thing that can be useful for pro-democracy forces in Belarus is Russia's alleged promise to the West that it warned Minsk that it cannot use force against peaceful protesters. But many do not believe that the Kremlin could ever make such a promise.

The most important thing is that there is serious apprehension (but growing into confidence) that campaigning activities - no matter in whose favor - do not have much sense, because official voting results would be determined by special technologies, which were already applied in the parliamentary elections and referendum of 2004. Then Russia would recognize the results, and the Belarusian leadership would believe that it is free to do whatever it wants for yet another five years.

It would be good if that forecast were a mistake, but it seems to be the most realistic one. Nevertheless, life goes on, and the main task for pro-democracy forces, both within and without Belarus, would be to continue activities they have carried out in the past several months.