Ruling Team's Script Gives Cracks

2006-03-15

By Valery Karbalevich

And it proved to be unexpected for the authorities. What seemed to be a well-written script started to give cracks. The plan to win an "elegant victory" by observing decorative democratic conditions, particularly letting the candidates say whatever they want on TV and radio, has failed. The election campaign, which used to look like a cheap comedy with a foregone end, is acquiring features of real fight for power.

The top of the government is panicky. The democracy play is over. The regime has gotten down to its usual means of retaining power. A script of violence has been launched.

KGB chief Stsyapan Sukharenka announced that they had disclosed a plot to overthrow the government. Television and radio addresses of opposition candidates were censored. Kazulin, his activists and journalists were beaten on March 2. Even gun shots were heard in the center of Minsk. Alyaksandr Milinkevich's meeting with voters was nearly foiled and had to be held in a different place.

The KGB's report about the alleged anti-government plot says that an NGO, Partnyorstva, is the nest of this plot, although this organization deals exceptionally with election observation and keeps away from the political opposition. It would be more convincing if this role were assigned to the headquarters of the united opposition's candidate, or opposition parties, or unregistered youth organizations, like Malady Front and Zubr, known for their street activities. It looks like the KGB does not understand the alignment of forces within the opposition or was simply in a hurry to make its report public.

Four leaders of Partnyorstva were detained for defaming the president. But then criminal proceedings against them were started for running an unregistered organization. And finally, they were publicly accused of preparing an anti-government plot. It seems that the regime did not even think of making the legal and propagandistic parts of the case consistent.

The main news on March 2 was not the opening of the All-Belarusian People Assembly but the beating and detention of Kazulin. Several days before the official forum opened in Minsk the state media were desperate to convince the general public that the Assembly was "a supreme form of council between the government and the people," "direct democracy," and "people's forum" intended to discuss and solve all the issue on public agenda. However, many viewers were disappointed. Their expectations did not come true.

It was extremely boring to watch the Assembly after the near-scandalous statements made by opposition presidential candidates on TV. People were not discussing Lukashenka's speech but Kazulin's attempt to break into the Assembly and Milinkevich's meeting with voters not far from the place of the forum.

The Assembly looked like a typical bureaucratic event, a self-sufficient meeting, a relic from an era long in the past. "Representatives of the nation" spoke in such an official way that it would be better not to broadcast them live.

The status of the main forum of the past five years, not to mention in the run-up to the presidential election, would mean that new ideas and an attractive vision of Belarus' future had to be offered to voters. However, Lukashenka did not say anything new, and nearly all his major ideas were many times expressed in the past.

The key message to the voter was as follows: no major changes are needed in the next five years, and the government will continue its usual policy, because the Belarusian model has proven its efficiency. The vision of future as the notorious "stability" is actually Lukashenka's program for the upcoming election.

Still, the main thing in the head of state's speeches in the Assembly was that he argued with his opponents and tried to dodge their accusations. One could have had the impression at times that he called that big strange meeting just to justify himself.

Lukashenka broke as many as two important rules of election campaigns. First of all, a politician should not sound as if he is making excuses, at least in such an obvious way. If he wants to refute accusations, he should do it in an elegant or even better humorous way. But Lukashenka did not find a better way but express insults at his opponents.

Secondly, a frontrunner with a significant advantage over competitors should enter into a discussion with them, because he is thereby increasing their ratings.

However, public repercussions from the campaign addresses of Kazulin and Milinkevich were so wide that Lukashenka's nerves were not able to endure them. The head of state has not been in such a sensitive situation for a long time. He was actually screaming during his speech, and everyone say that the president was scared.

Unlike on many other occasions, it is opposition candidates who are main newsmakers in the election campaign. It is them who set an agenda for public discussions and make the incumbent react and justify himself.

Decisive and non-standard moves by the opposition enhance its chances for the election.