Opposition Prepares for Long and Hard Fight

By Kiryl Paznyak

The fact is that the opposition had a much more powerful election campaign this time in comparison with 2001. Moreover, it seemed that the voters would be somewhat tired with Lukashenka's presidency over time. And finally, the specter of a revolution could be seen all over post-Soviet countries.

Thousands of security troops were standing by on March 19 ready to use force any time. However, they did not crack down on protesters but instead took a wait-and-see approach, apparently by order of their chiefs.

Having found out the scale of protests against electoral falsification, the authorities decided to show how democratic they were and let the opposition express its protest for as long as they wanted.

A clampdown on protesters in front of hundreds of international journalists and observers would certainly worsen Lukashenka's reputation. It is already bad that nearly all countries, except for traditional friends, such as Russia, Iran, Cuba, China, etc., doubt the reliability of the official results.

The non-use of force allowed Lukashenka to announce proudly (and with a sigh of relief) that the much-talked-of revolution had failed. He emphasized that no forceful measures were taken against the opposition, which was a sign of democracy in Belarus, according to him. He also added that his opponents were given the chance to show themselves but "the opposition only showed that it is worth of nothing."

Still, the post-election rally on March 19 turned out to be unexpectedly large. About 30,000 people gathered on Kastrychnitskaya (Oktyabrskaya) Square in central Minsk to protest the official election results. But in the end of the day their leaders told them to go home and come back the following day.

About 7,000 came to the Square on March 20 and March 21. In other words, street democracy was going down instead of growing like during the Orange Revolution in Ukraine.

As a result, the opposition failed to use street rallies to exert any serious pressure on the authorities so that they fulfill their demand for a repeat election. That could have been possible only if the number of participants was constantly growing. About 70,000 to 100,000 people would be a weighty force for Belarus.

The opposition tried to follow the standard of Kyiv's Maidan, but it turned out that people were still rather inert, even pro-democracy voters. The politicization of Belarusian society, despite active election campaigns by opposition candidates, did not achieve a level that could be sufficient for large-scale street protests.

On top of everything else, the weather was very cold, although freezing temperatures did not scare the Orange protesters in Kyiv some time ago. At the same time, it has to be admitted that they did not know such reprisals as in Belarus, they had their television channel, and they got support from wealthy people.

The present stability in Belarus, especially in the field of economy, is also in favor of the authorities, since this stability is much higher in the hierarchy of traditional Belarusian values than democracy.

Earlier this March the respected All-Russian Center of Public Opinion Surveys (VTsIOM) conducted a poll in Belarus to find out the level of people's well-being. It turned out that a majority of Belarusians, 59 percent, describe their living standards as average, 15 percent say that it is good and 24 percent say that it is bad. In Russia, for comparison, the respective figures are somewhat worse (57 percent - average, 11 percent - good, 32 percent - bad).

The level of people's content with their lives in Belarus is also higher. The Belarusians tend to think of their life in moderately positive terms, while the Russians are rather moderately negative. A large number of people in both countries (42 and 40 percent, respectively) are just partially happy about what they have. However, Belarus has a higher percentage of people who give positive assessments ("fully satisfied" and "mostly satisfied"), 37 percent, against those who give negative assessments ("mostly unsatisfied" and "completely unsatisfied"), 19 percent. The percentage of positive assessments is somewhat smaller than the percentage of negative assessments, 27 percent against 32 percent.

Fifty-two percent of interviewed Belarusians believe that life has become better in the past few years. One third does not see any changes. And 13 percent point to negative changes.

The tents on the Kastrychnitskaya Square in Minsk are nothing more than a symbol. The Belarusian opposition is now only capable of staging short one-time street rallies. It still fails to organize long-term and large-scale protest that could force the government to start a dialogue.

But the idea of having a revolution was mostly in the minds of romantics in the opposition. Lukashenka's opponents had to start campaigning in extremely difficult conditions, and ratings of their leaders did not exceed the margin of statistical errors.

Alyaksandr Milinkevich admits that the opposition has to prepare itself for long-term resistance to Lukashenka, rather than a Ukrainian-style victory: "I continue to compare our country with Poland in the time of the Solidarity movement. Long and hard fight is also ahead for us."

This is why a new civil movement is being set up, as was announced by Milinkevich at a rally in Minsk on March 25. But the problem is that more or less efficient communications with the general public are possible only in the course of election campaigns or during street rallies on special historical dates. However, the opposition is going to expand its publicity even despite reprisals.

"Over the five months of our information and election campaign we got proposals and offers of help from a huge number of people, dozens of times more than the number of members in political parties and NGOs. The authorities stole our victory and we have to fight for it now. We have to do painstaking and systemic work, and it will inevitably lead to democratic changes in Belarus," comments Milinkevich.

Among the goals of the new movement is to provide opportunities to repressed students to continue their studies abroad, create a comprehensive system of independent information distribution and carry out activities that could lead to free and transparent elections in the country.

Perhaps the opposition can succeed in taking to street hundreds of thousands Belarusians in 2011 or 2016, unless of course the authorities decide to allow opponents to enter the official political system and thereby protect themselves from a revolution by a creeping evolution.