Opposition Coalition Has Good Chances of Staying Alive After March 19

2006-02-24

By Pavel Kirylaw

The Belarusian Party of Communists and the Belarusian Popular Front recently received their second warnings from the Ministry of Justice. This means that they can be already shut down under the current regulations. But legislation forbids closing political parties during election campaigns. As soon as the election is over, the closures seem quite possible. The authorities can be really decisive, because the ongoing campaign has seen opposition parties consolidated and more active than before.

But do they represent a serious political force?

Political scientist Viktar Charnow, while looking back in time, points out that parties claimed a significant place in the country's political life in the beginning of the 1990s but in 1996 they found themselves in the margins of the political system.

"Simply speaking, they proved to be unnecessary for this system. Therefore, they faced the need for changing their behavior. The fact is that from the very beginning Belarusian parties were oriented toward parliamentary politics: setting up coalitions, parliamentary factions, etc. But the present-day Belarusian parliament is non-party, which means that parties are deprived of legal channels to influence political decisions. This is why they have to resort to informal, street methods of political activity. But they have proved to be unprepared for that. The reasons are in their small numbers and poor discipline, as well as in numerous obstacles posed by the authorities and in low political activity of the general public. And parties, which are by their nature designed to mobilize protest sentiments of the public, have to use the methods that would not be used in other conditions," says the expert in an interview with BDG.Delovaya Gazeta.

A general decline in the authority and ratings of political parties forced them to choose a non-party presidential challenger, Uladzimir Hancharyk, in 2001. The situation changed in the parliamentary elections of 2004. Party members started to run for seats in the parliament, and the overall role of parties became more visible. But the outcome of the election turned out actually the same as in 2000, when the opposition abstained from participation in a boycott. The National Assembly remained to be unstructured in party terms. Accordingly, parties cannot yet fulfill the function of concentrating interests of social groups and develop political courses based on the interests of those groups.

Charnow concludes that Belarus actually has a non-party system in which parties exist de jure but are non-existent de facto as political forces. That they have a low rating among the general public is also because society has not come to understand the importance and value of parties as institutions capable of representing their interests.

According to Charnow, the role of parties became stronger in 2006 in comparison with the presidential election of 2001: "Although Alyaksandr Milinkevich is not affiliated with any party formally, he is actually a nominee of the Belarusian Popular Front. And other parties agreed with his candidacy and signed a respective agreement."

Alyaksandr Kazulin, another presidential contender, is at the head of the Belarusian Social Democratic Party. In fact, his entire campaign is now on the shoulders of political parties.

The political expert believes that the division of Belarusian parties into right and left can be correct only theoretically: "This division does not matter at all in Belarus. What parties here special is that they are not parties of interests, like everywhere else in the world, but parties of ideas. In theory, they are different, at least because they have different ideologies, but these ideological differences do not matter in practice because they are not working to get the possibility of pursuing a certain political course but to get power as such. At this phase ideological differences play a far smaller role than national interests."

Charnow predicts that the election of 2006 will once again confirm for parties that they should continue consolidating their efforts: "Given that the country does not have a party system, parties may retain their legal status and structure but they should work together to set up a large-scale political movement as an organized system with clearly divided responsibilities and functions. Agendas and ambitions of individual parties recede into background in this case. If they are separated from others, they are helpless anyway. The current situation can bring Belarusian parties to establishing an inter-party coalition to become a foundation for such a large-scale movement."

Meanwhile, many believe that the coalition of parties brought together in the run-up to the presidential election cannot live long, because it is established for one occasion and its members are too different. It is an opinion of Viktar Nistsyuk, deputy chairman of the Belarusian Social Democratic Party, which moves toward the election in a separate column led by Alyaksandr Kazulin.

Nistsyuk predicted that the coalition that has Milinkevich as its leader will fall apart soon after the election. He thinks that opposition forces should structure themselves in a classical way: left-wing parties should be with other left and left-of-center parties, while right-wing ones should be with other right and right-of-center parties. But, he adds, they can agree on some things during election campaigns. However, he does not mention important thing: it can be extremely difficult for left-wing and right-wing presidential contenders to come to terms.

In the meantime, some analysts point out that the model of today's coalition has proved its efficiency. Their initial goal - to consolidate and select an alternative to Lukashenka - has been achieved. This coalition, they say, has good chances to remain long-living political actor, especially if the opposition is viewed by voters as a force gaining in popularity.

It is only important that Milinkevich does not disappear from political life after the election, like Hancharyk did in 2001. There is a high probability that he will remain active in politics. The West has its serious and long-term stake on him. This external factor can keep the coalition from falling apart.

Another factor that can help save the coalition is that parliamentary elections in Belarus do not use party lists but majority system. In other words, political parties, which are the backbone of the coalition, would not really need to promote their individual brands.