Proactive European Support for Belarusian Democrats Can Influence Even the Kremlin

2006-02-10

By Andrey Fyodaraw

It turned out that the Russian delegation was behind the coming of Kanaplyow to Strasbourg. It used some internal disagreements in the PACE to convince others to let a Belarusian delegation attend the session. However, the presence of Kanaplyow, as well as resistance from Russia, did not make the situation any better for Minsk. An overwhelming majority voted to pass yet one more resolution on Belarus.

Apart from a standard beginning on political prisoners, draconian amendments to the Criminal Code and politically motivated disappearances, the document has an even more unpleasant (for the Belarusian regime) component. The PACE calls on the European Union to find and block assets of Lukashenka and his close subordinates in the West, expand a list of officials to be barred from entering EU countries and simplify visa procedures for average Belarusian citizens, especially students.

Clearly, the impact of this resolution is moral rather than practical, and it can hardly be able to influence the situation in the country, especially within a short period of time before a presidential election this March.

However, a painful reaction of Moscow to PACE decisions on Russian issues shows that such political instruments do have certain effects. They are not immediate but should reveal themselves sooner or later.

Brussels and Berlin are two more destinations in the itinerary of the Belarusian opposition leader. Milinkevich had a number of high-ranking meetings in both capitals, including president of the European Commission, foreign ministers in the European Council and German chancellor. The EU's General Affairs and External Relations Council adopted a statement in which it expressed readiness to monitor the situation in Belarus and increase diplomatic sanctions against the country's authorities in case of gross violations of international democratic standards during the upcoming election.

Interestingly enough, the West's approach has coincided with what Belarusian independent experts recommended. The latter suggested that the single pro-democracy candidate's meetings with European leaders would become a powerful message. Regular appearances with the continent's leading political figures certainly improve his image and attract voters.

The Belarusian authorities know that, too, of course, which can be seen in Alyaksandr Lukashenka's remarks during his recent television interview and in comments of the country's foreign office. A spokesman of the Belarusian foreign ministry looked rather helpless when he made his comments: "We did not expect such an approach from the EU, especially now that we are discussing conditions for a visit of high-ranking representatives of the European Council's General Secretariat to Minsk."

That the Belarusian leader is rather nervous because of external pressure is also visible because he tries to distinguish for the public between the positions of the USA and the EU. He said in the above-mentioned interview on January 27 that "we would not have any problems with Europe, if it were not for the USA. The Americans are pressing the Europeans to pursue such a policy. They force Europe to run even ahead of the USA by pursuing a pro-American policy with regard to Belarus, Russia and other states."

A similar approach of trying to separate the USA and the EU was taken by Kanaplyow in Strasbourg: "We do not understand why you are attacking the Republic of Belarus. Perhaps because we do not kneel in front of the USA? But what if we did? What would be benefits for Europe?"

In general, it looks like international pressure on Russia is starting to bring about some effects. It is quite possible that one of them could be seen during a recent news conference of Putin in Moscow when he answered a question about Russian support of the Belarusian regime. First of all, the Russian leader pointed out that bilateral relations were difficult. Secondly, he said that "saying that we are supporting one or another political leader at any cost is absolutely wrong." Even if this reserve is just an attempt to avoid new reproaches from the West, it already shows certain changes in Moscow's conduct.