Presidential Election May See Two Weak Alternatives Instead of One Strong Candidate

2006-02-08

By Kiryl Paznyak

Kazulin is the one who offered talks. He outlines his party's position and his own opinion about the election campaign in a letter to Milinkevich: "We believe that the authorities of Belarus have announced and are conducting a presidential election with multiple violations of the country's legislation. They disregard international standards of democracy and recommendations of the OSCE. The results of such an election are likely to get a controversial reaction from both inside Belarus and abroad. We take part in this dubious election only because any other kind of election is not yet possible in Belarus."

Kazulin's goal is "to bring closer the restoration of democracy in our country and change sentiments of the nation."

This understanding of the current political situation makes his party take "an open attitude to all representatives of Belarusian democracy involved in the presidential campaign. Moreover, we understand the need for coordination and interaction among all democratic forces in this extremely important period for our Fatherland."

Kazulin offers to Milinkevich to discuss three main issues: 1) "the prospect of joining the team of one of us to pool efforts for the organization of a pro-democracy election campaign, if the other one fails to get official registration as a presidential candidate;" 2) large-scale election observation and 3) joining forces during the phase of campaigning, if they both decide to stay in the race.

If Milinkevich does not get registration, his support will be very much needed by Kazulin. Otherwise a significant part of opposition forces may boycott the election and the social democratic leader will be branded "a project of the Presidential Administration" or "a creature of Russian secret services."

Interestingly enough, Kazulin's agenda for talks with Milinkevich does not include an option for both of them obtaining registration but withdrawing one candidacy in favor for the other or doing so even before registration. This is additional proof that the possibility for such development is very low.

Milinkevich has said repeatedly that he is not going to withdraw from the race by his own decision. His arguments are of course understandable: he brings together a large number of opposition forces and his rating is growing. Moreover, he ranks second after Lukashenka in terms of the number of signatures collected.

Meanwhile, Kazulin says that he is the one who has the best chances to become a good alternative to the incumbent leader.

"It was clear from the very beginning that signature collection would put aside all inactive forces within the Belarusian opposition," comments Uladzimir Nistsyuk, deputy chairman of Kazulin's party. "And now we see that there are two main alternative contenders: Milinkevich who has a lot of strong organizations around him and Kazuling whose support is also serious. Now they should try to come to terms."

Nistsyuk refers to the need for finding common ground on the issues listed in Kazulin's letter. As of today, he believes that it is almost impossible that one of them would agree to step aside in favor of the other.

He adds that it is not the first offer from the Belarusian Social Democratic Party to the rest of the opposition, but all the previous message were ignored, "They think of us as political instruments rather than partners."

A decision on the registration of presidential candidates is expected from the central election commission between February 16 to 19. So the two men still have about ten days to come to terms.

The two teams have achieved something by now: they agreed to cooperation during election observation. But as for the possibility of getting out of the race for one of them, they are still far from a compromise.

Milinkevich's team says that if they agree to what Kazulin offers, the authorities will get a chance to choose the easiest competitor for Lukashenka. The social democratic team answers that they should agree on who will step aside even before official registration. But to be able to reach such an agreement, the two sides should have criteria for it, like ratings or the number of signatures collected. And Milinkevich has obviously better chances than Kazulin in that respect. A proposal of criteria was sent to Kazulin recently in a letter from Milinkevich, but Kazulin's opinion was that it had been an ultimatum. So, the dialogue have actually stalemated.

Meanwhile, the Belarusian authorities "are doing their best to allow as many participants in the presidential election as possible," according to chairman of the House of Representatives Uladzimir Kanaplyow, who spoke in Minsk on January 31 during a meeting with OSCE Parliamentary Assembly's working group on Belarus, led by Uta Zapf.

If both opposition candidates stay in the race, votes will be split and voter capacity for street protests will be diminished.

One has to admit that unlike Kazulin, Milinkevich has a clear-cut plan for the upcoming election. He is speaking about chances to win the vote and about the possibility of mass protests. At the same time, Kazulin is mostly speaking about general democratic values. It looks like he is trying to promote himself for the future when a victory can be more realistic.

Clearly, Milinkevich will also claim its place as a national leader alternative to Lukashenka after the election. Thus, both of them work both for the present and for the future in this election campaign.

Still, it is also possible that Milinkevich and Kazulin can fall into the footsteps of Uladzimir Hancharyk and Syamyon Domash who disappeared from the political scene after the election of 2001. It is indeed very difficult to become a true leader outside the official political system.