Aleksandr Lukashenko's Third Term: "Yes" and "No" Votes

By the Gallup Organization/Baltic Surveys, Vilnius

The October 17 referendum will determine a course of Belarus' development for a very long period. It may have implications for other CIS countries as well, as the sitting president's victory in the referendum would inevitably set a new precedent - no head of state in former European republics of the Soviet Union has ever changed the constitution, removing the restriction on his reelection. That is why the constitutional referendum has attracted increasingly wide attention both in Belarus and other countries.

Whatever the external factors influencing the development of this or that country may be, it is its citizens that have the deciding vote.

The Gallup Organization/Baltic Surveys, a branch of a leading international network that has taken polls worldwide for decades, has been conducting surveys in the neighboring Belarus recently. Since rumors about the constitutional referendum appeared shortly after the latest presidential elections three years ago, we have been devoting particular attention to this topic. This is how public opinion on the matter has been changing over the last 1.5 years.

Table 1. Will you vote at a referendum for a constitutional change that would allow Aleksandr Lukashenko to run for a third term (figures refer to percent of those interviewed)*?

* According to the findings of polls conducted by the Gallup Organization/Baltic Surveys and the Independent Institute for Social, Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS) (the data obtained by the IISEPS given in shaded columns). In all surveys, 1.500 people aged 18 and over were interviewed face to face; in August and September of 2004 3,000 were surveyed in accordance with a tracking poll method (the margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points 400 people were interviewed in late September and early October of 2004 (the margin of sampling error was plus or minus five percentage points). Questions differed slightly (in degree of readiness to vote), but this does not change drastically the entire picture.

As the data show, "No" answers had exceeded in number "Yes" answers until the wording of the question was changed (in the last poll, respondents were asked to answer the same question that Aleksandr Lukashenko put to the plebiscite). Over the last 1.5 years, the number of the Belarusian leader's opponents has considerably dwindled, while his supporters have grown in number: 35.7 percent said in late September they would say "No" at the referendum against 44.4 percent who would vote for the proposal. Has the latest shift in public opinion been caused by objective factors (a rise in the population's incomes, political stability, etc.) or by subjective reasons (the wording of the question, official propaganda, etc)? In order to answer the question, let's consider changes in the Belarusians' attitude to Lukashenko and the way he runs the country.

Table 2. Do you think that Aleksandr Lukashenko is generally good in governing the country and should be re-elected in the next presidential election or someone else should take over the presidential post and get a chance to do the job better? (Figures refer to percent of those interviewed)

As can be seen from Table 2, although a certain positive trend is visible, the general proportion between proponents and opponents of President Lukashenko's re-election is obviously in favor of the latter.

When asked directly (this question followed in our latest poll just after a question identical to the one placed on the referendum), "If Aleksandr Lukashenko runs for President, will you vote for him or for someone else?" those interviewed gave the following answers:

Table 3. Readiness to vote for Lukashenko in the next presidential election (Figures refer to percent of those interviewed)

Judging by the findings given above, it is very likely that the most recent change in the attitude to the proposed constitutional changes is caused by subjective reasons and does not reflect any profound changes in public opinion.

What is the forecast for the upcoming referendum on October 17? Is Belarus going to vote in favor of amending the Constitution to the effect of lifting restrictions on presidential tenure or against it?

The country's Electoral Code says that a referendum decision is valid, if it gets support from the majority of registered voters, that is, if 50 percent plus one person vote for it. Thus, it is easy to calculate how many votes Lukashenko needs to be able to stand for re-election as many times as he chooses. According to the central election commission, there are about 7,105,000 registered voters in Belarus. Therefore, the incumbent president has to have more than 3,552,500 votes in favor of the referendum question to be eligible for the next presidential election in 2006.

Recent polls reveal that, although just 27.7 percent of those interviewed believe that "elections will be completely free and fair" (35.2 percent - "free and fair to a certain degree;" 28.2 percent - "elections will not be free and fair"), 70 to 75 percent, or about five million voters, are ready to come to polling stations to cast their votes on October 17. Clearly, 39.7 percent, those who are going to say "yes" in the referendum, is not enough for the president's victory, since they amount to just 2,820,685 people. Therefore, the Belarusian authorities are now fighting for those who still hesitate or find it difficult to answer the respective question. They are 23.1 percent, or about 1,165,000 voters. If the president does get all those votes, he can win. But can he really get them? Definitely, no.

Firstly, because not all but only nearly 80 percent of those who are currently ready to vote "for" (those 39.7 percent) plan to go to the polls (2,256,550 people). This means that to have his referendum proposal passed, the president needs an additional 1,296,000 votes, i.e. 131,000 more than the number of undecided voters. Secondly, as international experience shows, most of those undecided, as a rule, vote as most of the decided voters do. But the president does not have an absolute majority at present: 39.7 percent against 33.3 percent. Thirdly, an analysis of the social and political priorities of the undecided shows that many of them do not like the government's policy and its main inspirer. If Lukashenko ran for President once again, only 17.2 percent of the undecided with regard to the referendum would vote to elect him, 12.9 percent would vote against this, and 69 percent have not yet made up their minds. Only 53 percent of the undecided with respect to the referendum believe that "the general state of things in the country is developing in the right direction," the others either adhere to the contrary opinion or cannot say definitely. Only 49 percent of the undecided with respect to the referendum believe that "Belarus is not currently in an economic crisis," the others think the contrary or find it difficult to say. This provides grounds to suggest that out of the 23.1 percent of undecided people, approximately half, i.e. no more than 600,000 people would vote for the referendum proposal.

A simple arithmetical calculation shows that even with these votes taken into account, Lukashenko is to receive at least half a million votes less than he needs. Even if 90 percent of all voters, not 75 percent, go to the polls, the president still will not have enough votes to win, as most of those who do not plan to vote are not his supporters. There can be two ways out: either make some of his dislikers change their mind and persuade all those undecided into voting for his proposal, which is unrealistic considering the short period of time left before the polling day, or "redistribute" the vote in his favor. Since some 500,000 votes are lacking, this would be "large-scale redistribution." It is hard to say how the election authorities are ready for this and whether the Belarusian people would tolerate this. But the countdown has begun.

* This article is based on the results of a nationwide tracking poll conducted by the Gallup Organization/Baltic Surveys at the end of September 2004. As many as 400 people were interviewed. The sampling error was plus or minus five percentage points.