Democrats Need to Enlist Support of Undecided Voters

2004-04-13

By Aleh Manayew

Even if different opposition forces finally get united for parliamentary elections this fall, their aggregate electorate will account for just one fifth of the voters who intend to turn up at the polls. In such situation, there could be two ways to expand the electoral support of democratic forces. Firstly, the opposition should try to win those voters who are ready to cast their votes for independent candidates. Secondly, and more importantly, they should enlist the support of those voters who are not going to vote or have not yet decided whether they will vote or not.

The closer the elections for the House of Representatives of the National Assembly, preliminarily scheduled for October 17, 2004, the clearer the electoral landscape that will determine the outcome of efforts taken by main political players.

The closer the elections for the House of Representatives of the National Assembly, preliminarily scheduled for October 17, 2004, the clearer the electoral landscape that will determine the outcome of efforts taken by main political players.

Now nearly two thirds of those interviewed, or 64.2 percent, are going to cast their votes in the upcoming parliamentary elections; 21.4 percent say that they will not vote at all, while 14.4 percent have not yet decided whether they will vote or not. The largest group (42.7 percent) among those who do intend to go to the polls would vote for candidates of one of ten opposition parties. As many as 28.6 percent would not vote for representatives of opposition parties, while 24 percent found it difficult to specify their position.

It would seem that the opposition has a favorable balance in electoral expectations. But is the electorate of democratic parties consolidated enough?

Table 1. Intersection of electoral preferences by those who would vote for democratic parties and coalitions (in absolute values)

* For candidates from another political party or bloc

** For independent candidates

*** For candidates supporting Alyaksandr Lukashenka's policies

**** For none of them + those who gave no answer

A profound analysis of answers given by potential voters (see Table 1) who are ready to vote for representatives of democratic parties in the parliamentary election this fall shows that just 13.4 percent of them would vote for candidates representing the Five Plus coalition, 12.4 percent for those of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), 7.9 percent - from other blocs or parties, 7.4 percent for representatives of Svabodnaya Belarus, 3.3 percent for those of the "For Changes!" movement, and 1.5 percent for Maladaya Belarus representatives. Notably, nearly one in six people who would prefer the Conservative Christian Party is ready to vote for LDP candidates. At the same time, none of the Nadzeya supporters would vote for candidates representing Svabodnaya Belarus, although the women's party is a co-founder of the coalition.

Still, the largest number of those who support the opposition would vote for independent candidates - 23.7 percent, with 46.4 percent of them being proponents of the Five Plus coalition and 43.4 percent proponents of Svabodnaya Belarus. As many as 19.2 percent would vote for pro-Lukashenka candidates, with 53.6 percent of them being supporters of the Five Plus coalition and 33.9 percent supporters of Svabodnaya Belarus. Eleven percent are not ready to give their votes to representatives of any specific category of candidates or find it difficult to specify their choice, with 41.9 percent of them being supporters of the Five Plus coalition and 38.7 percent supporters of Svabodnaya Belarus.

Thus, even if Five Plus, Svabodnaya Belarus, For Changes!, Maladaya Belarus and any other opposition groups get together into one alliance in the run-up to the parliamentary elections, its voters will account for one third of those who are ready to vote for democratic candidates and just one fifth of all willing to take part in the voting.

How can democratic forces expand their voter support in such situation? The first and tactically most efficient way is to get those voters who would prefer to vote for independent candidates - 33.4% + 23.8% = 57.2% - which can be done by including independent candidates in their lists of candidates or by representing their candidates as independent. But the opposition has to keep in mind that the authorities would try to do the same and offer independent candidates much weightier incentives. Therefore, one can expect that there will be real fight for independent candidates.

Another way, which is more complicated but more efficient strategically, would be in winning those voters who are not going to turn up at the polls or who have not yet decided whether they will vote or not. They are 35.8 percent, or 2.6 million, of the voters.

Why would this way be more strategically efficient? The fact is a lot of Belarusians who are critical toward the present government do not really believe that the course can be changed through elections. About 70 percent of the people who do not intend to vote or who are still undecided are not satisfied with the level of democracy in Belarus. Such people are just 44.4 percent of those who are already ready to vote. Two-thirds believe that human rights are not respected in the country (41 percent of those ready to vote 58.2 percent would vote against a third term for Lukashenka at a possible referendum (41.9 percent and 58.2 percent would vote for a candidate who could be a good alternative to Lukashenka at the next presidential election (32.7 percent). At the same time, nearly two-thirds of those potential voters do not believe that the upcoming parliamentary election is going to be free and fair. Just one-third of those ready to vote think in the same way.

The present situation is not special specifically for Belarus. Pro-democracy voters have a similar position in many post-Communist countries, which is why democratic forces are very active there in carrying out a long-term campaign to mobilize their potential voters, which was the case in Slovakia in 2002 and Georgia in 2003.

Of course, democratic forces in Belarus have a number of obstacles that prevent them from effective preparations for the parliamentary elections, such as direct and indirect pressure, restricted access to voters, aggressive discrediting by the state media, etc. But in other countries where the opposition managed to achieve significant success, pro-democracy forces did not have good conditions either. They also had to deal with restrictions created by the authorities and reluctance of conservative voters.

The most important conditions for the Belarusian opposition to achieve success this fall would be the following. Firstly, maximum consolidation and establishment of a single democratic bloc; secondly, embracing independent candidates by including them into the opposition's lists of candidates; thirdly, organizing an efficient mobilization campaign to draw the votes of those people who are not yet decided about their participation in the voting. To this end, the people have to be consistently persuaded of the possibility to achieve success and resolve issues that raise their most serious concerns.

Fourthly, the opposition should organize proper election observation, including international observers. Due to a number of geopolitical reasons, there exists the probability that the Belarusian authorities will ask international observers to come well in advance, like two or three months, not one week before the voting day.

The findings of the poll suggest that the pro-democracy opposition has a good chance of success in the parliamentary campaign if it fulfills those conditions.

Methodology: The Independent Institute of Social, Economic and Political Studies conducted this survey in March 2004, polling 1,480 people aged 18+ nationwide by face-to-face interviews. Sampling error does not exceed three percent.