Special project by BelaPAN
2004 National Assembly Elections and Referendum
 
Sociology

Minskers Getting More Optimistic and More Determined to Rely on Themselves to Make Their Life Better


2004-01-13

Following are some results of a poll conducted by BelaPAN's Sociological Service "Zerkalo" in mid-December in Minsk. All figures refer to percent.

Table 1. What is your expectation of 2004?

It will be successful

39

It will be the same as previous one

26

It will be unsuccessful

4

No specific answer

31

Table 2. Do you think your financial position can change in 2004 (in 2003 - in the poll of 2002)?

 

December 2002

December 2003

Yes, it can change for the better

35

38

Yes, it can change for the worse

16

10

No, it will not change

31

32

No specific answer

18

20

Thus, we can see that more than 30 percent of those interviewed in Minsk expect that their financial status can improve in 2004. Another 30 percent do not expect any changes, while ten percent believe that their material well-being will not be as good as in 2003.

Table 3. What do you hope for in or expect from 2004 (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 - in respective polls)?

 

December 1999

December 2000

December 2001

December 2002

December 2003

I do not expect anything, because my expectations cannot come true anyway

16

24

25

27

12

I do not expect anything, because things are already fine

4

4

*

*

*

To get richer

31

31

36

37

41

To start up my own business

6

7

6

9

7

To get education, profession

3

6

10

10

11

To improve my professional skills

8

To find an interesting job

10

14

17

15

17

To improve my health

26

28

33

29

38

To meet a loved one

14

10

8

5

10

To get married

5

2

6

7

4

To have kids

5

4

To find real friends

7

3

4

5

7

To solve housing problem

14

15

15

15

16

To finish building my house

6

To buy a car

10

6

5

8

7

To visit other countries

17

13

18

13

14

To emigrate from Belarus

5

7

5

5

4

To have a lot of fun

9

7

7

5

6

To go in for sports

5

4

3

3

3

To make a remarkable achievement and win fame for it

2

2

1

2

3

Other

8

8

7

4

9

No specific answer

2

2

3

1

3

* means the respective questionnaires did not have that answer

Table 3 shows that material well-being and good health still top Minskers' wish list, like in previous years. However, the situation has changed this year, because many people in the past did not expect anything from the coming year, as they did not believe that their expectations could come true, whereas the most recent poll has shown that the number of such people fell to just 12 percent.

Moreover, as it can be seen from Table 4, more than one half of interviewed Minskers rely on no one but themselves for improving their living. And still more people tend to pin their hopes for better life on someone else, such as God, parents, relatives, children, etc.

Table 4. Who do you pin your hopes on for improving your living? (Several answers can be given)

 

September 1998

March 2002

December 2002

December 2003

Belarusian president and his agencies

15

18

18

13

Belarusian government

*

*

*

13

National Assembly (parliament)

1

7

3

2

Left-wing political parties

1

2

1

1

Social democratic parties

*

*

1

3

Right-wing political parties

5

6

3

2

Help from the West (foreign capital)

18

13

22

17

Help from Russia

6

11

18

11

A strong personality who can establish law and order in the country

28

21

22

22

Only myself

45

55

50

53

Someone else

8

8

6

12

No specific answer

10

6

5

9

* The questionnaire did not have that answer in the respective poll

Less Minskers hope for the country's president now, just like for the help from the West and Russia. As for political parties, they have never been hopefuls in public opinion.

Table 5 shows that the percentage of people who do not support the idea of establishing a Belarusian-Russian union state has not changed much in comparison with 2002. At the same time, the share of those who are in favor of such integration model has shrunk significantly, from 49 to 35 percent. In addition, there has been a 15-percent increase among those who cannot give a specific answer to the respective question, which is rather logical, taking into account confusing integration developments and their awkward coverage in state media.

Table 5. Do you support the establishment of a Belarusian-Russian Union State?

 

August 1999

November 1999

December 2000

December 2001

August 2002

December 2003

Yes

31

38

51

42

49

35

No

51

42

28

29

38

37

No specific answer

18

20

21

29

13

28

Long ahead of parliamentary elections this fall, about one half of those interviewed already think that voting results can be rigged (Table 7). Just 29 percent are of the opposite opinion.

Also, about 45 percent have not yet decided whom to give their votes (Table 6).

Table 6. Who do you vote for in parliamentary elections in the fall of 2004?

For candidates representing the government

5

For candidates representing the opposition

7

For independent candidates

14

For any candidate whom I like

29

I do not know yet

45

Table 7. Do you think voting results will be rigged or not?

Yes

18

Rather yes than no

24

Rather no than yes

15

No

14

No specific answer

29

Methodology: The poll was conducted in Minsk among 500 people aged 18+ and selected on the basis of a quota sample according to their sex, age and education. Margin of sample error does not exceed one percent.