No Velvet Revolution Expected On October 18

Belarusian news (www.naviny.by)

However, on October 10 the opposition activists want to hold a preliminary action with a concert. The required application has been submitted to the city executive council. The action is supposed to start at 15.00 on Bangalor Square in Minsk.

"We are going to discuss the political and socio-economic situation in the country on the eve of the constitutional referendum and parliamentary election," Vladimir Romanovsky from the United Civic Party told BelaPAN.

It is easy to see that the discussion of the political and socio-economic situation in the country will come to criticism against the present authorities and to the call to say "No" at the plebiscite on October 17.

After the October 10 action we can forecast how many people will come to the streets on October 18 to "celebrate" the referendum results.

Will the opposition actions become mass rallies? The actions of the last years can't boast of large numbers of participants. The columns of marchers are getting thinner and thinner and now they total several thousands people, whereas the law enforcement forces report only several hundreds.

The opposition doesn't reveal their quantity expectations for the October 10 and 18 actions. Everybody still remembers the statement of the parliamentary group Respublika that planned to gather 30-40 thousand people at the meeting devoted to the 10th anniversary of Lukashenko's office. As a result, they failed to fulfill their plans.

The referendum was supposed to stir up the Belarusian society and to make it more politically active. The political activity may develop into the renaissance of the street democracy. Especially as the opponents to the unlimited office scenario have no other methods to express their protest. The Belarusian mass media is controlled by the government and their propaganda is politically biased.

In a recent interview Vladimir Nistuk, the first deputy to the chairperson of the Belarusian Social-Democratic Party (Gromada), doubted that the forthcoming opposition street rallies would be mass and successful.

The politician believes that "people are not excited about the referendum because most of them don't understand what question will be put to the referendum and what it will be a possible outcome of their voting. The referendum issue is heavily discussed only in the circles of the political elite."

Nistuk thinks, "The opposition failed to boost the morale of their supporters and didn't work out a proper scenario of their actions at the referendum. They have no their own political technologies. Even opposition candidates to deputies are stumping without any definite course on the referendum. Parties leaders are mostly occupied with their deputy prospects than the plebiscite."

The expert says that they may have reason because they have two more years in stock until the presidential election when everything will be put on stake.

In general, no social outburst, not speaking about a revolution, is expected in connection with the referendum. "The Belarusians can't be made to eat the grass", Nistuk says.

The October 10 and 18 actions are arranged mostly because the opposition feels that they have to do something about the referendum. Nevertheless, they are likely to turn into mass actions, provided the authorities sanction them, the politician believes.