Best Shot Yet For Opposition?
2004-01-27
Institute for War & Peace reporting, January 27, 2004
Belarusian opposition parties have forged their strongest electoral pact yet to allow them to contest a parliamentary ballot later this year, in the face of expected harassment and vote-rigging by the authorities.
Five major parties ranging from right-of-centre to communist have put aside ideological differences to build a bloc called the Five Plus People's Coalition, formally launched last week after months of discussions.
The group includes the United Civil Party, UCP, the Belarusian Popular Front, the Party of Communists, the Belarusian Social Democratic Society, and the Labour Party. The "plus" element consists of some 200 non-government organisations.
The Respublika faction in parliament, which has developed into something like an official opposition over the last year, is also part of the coalition, although the first signs of a possible rift surfaced around the time the campaign platform was launched.
The parties opposed to President Alexander Lukashenko have created formal and informal coalitions before now. What is new about this one is that even if it does not quite unite 90 per cent of the opposition as it claims, it undoubtedly represents the majority, and has agreed on a common list of candidates well ahead of the election date.
Since parties in Belarus are built around strong central personalities, it is also some achievement that personal ambitions have been suppressed so as to present a unanimous front.
Most of the opposition parties boycotted the last general election, in 2000, because they regarded the parliament as illegitimate. They got together for the presidential election the following year, but were unable to come up with a common candidate until very late in the campaign cycle.
According to UCP leader Anatoly Lebedko, "In 2001, unity among the opposition was achieved only two weeks before the election campaign, and the united opposition looked more like a squad of partisans rather than a regular army."
This time round, the parties began much earlier, with the coalition taking shape several months ago for an election expected in October 2004. "Now we have some time - even if it's not too much - to organise a fully-fledged election campaign," said Lebedko.
The coalition has announced a five-point programme which focuses on practical changes such as job creation, pensions and transparent government, rather than on areas which would divide the electorate such as whether to seek closer relations with Russia, Belarus's traditional ally, or the European Union.
This chimes in with independent polls which show most voters far more concerned about their own economic difficulties than with high-sounding political matters.
Five Plus leaders believe they have found a winning formula which could carry them to victory despite the obstacles that - on past record - will be put in their way. These are likely to include tactics documented by international observers in the past, such as lack of access to the dominant state media, a stream of pro-Lukashenko propaganda, closure of independent newspapers, harassment of activists, and the disbarring of candidates, not to mention rigging of the election itself.
At the moment, it is hard to say how the opposition will fare. A recent opinion poll by the Independent Institute for Socioeconomic and Political Studies suggested that 34.5 per cent of the electorate would vote for a united opposition candidate, just behind the 36.6 per cent who would vote for pro-Lukashenko contenders.
The institute's head Oleg Manaev believes that with effective campaigning, the opposition could increase its share of voter support to over 50 per cent. "But everyone knows only too well that the election will take place under the state's control," he told IWPR. "The question is how successful the state system will be at concealing the results."
The Five Plus list of candidates covers the entire country, with two people nominated for every constituency - the idea being that a spare is needed in case the first is denied registration by the authorities, a common feature in last year's local elections. One will stand aside closer to the election date.
Only half the names have been made public, because some of them currently work for the government and fear being exposed too soon. The candidates who have been named include a former defence minister, a former speaker of parliament, and an ex-central banker.
Notably outside the coalition is the Belarusian Social Democratic Party of Nikolai Statkevich, who has a record of going it alone. He has formed his own grouping called the European Coalition-Free Belarus, with the Charter 97 civil rights group as its main partner.
Statkevich told IWPR that Five Plus should join his coalition, accusing it of trying to "monopolise democracy" as things stand. But since Five Plus is much bigger than his group, it is unlikely to consider such a step. Leaders such as Lebedko and communist leader Sergei Kalyakin have said that if anything, others should join them rather than the other way around.
A second election pact appeared in mid-January called Young Belarus, led by the youth group Young Front.
Officials close to President Lukashenko's administration are dismissive of Five Plus's prospects. Lev Krishtapovich, head of the Institute for Social and Political Research - a body controlled by the president's office - told IWPR that "the opposition has learnt and understood nothing about real political life, so its prospects are quite bleak".
"If you look at their list," he said, "the people featuring on it are all old politicians who have exhausted their potential. They are unlikely to infuse fresh spirit into political life."
But it is not only deficiencies in the opposition that will hold them back. Five Plus leaders are realistic about the level of obstruction they will face from the authorities.
"A fight for constituency seats... would only be possible if there were real elections," said Lebedko in a recent interview for Belorusskaya Gazeta. "It's a fight for public sympathy and trust."
