EU Accession? Not Quite Yet

2004-03-10

Institute for War & Peace reporting, March 10, 2004

A leading opposition group has launched a nationwide petition for Belarus to join the European Union. Campaigners say it is a genuine attempt to bring this traditionally pro Russian nation closer to Europe, but critics say it's little more than a publicity stunt.

The European Coalition-Free Belarus, an election campaign bloc set up and dominated by the Social Democratic Party of Belarus, SDPB, has begun a drive to get one million Belarusians - about one in ten of the population - to put their names to a petition calling for integration into the European Union, EU.

The idea is that once completed, the petition will be circulated around EU institutions such as the European Parliament and the Commission. The document says that the only way for Belarusians to secure a prosperous and secure future is to join the EU.

Nikolai Statkevich, who leads both the SDPB and the coalition, says the main aim is to initiate a debate and begin changing minds both in Belarus and Europe. The million signatures will provide "material evidence" that EU politicians will be unable to ignore, he said.

Under President Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus has had a difficult relationship with western European countries, which have called for substantial political and economic reforms and improvements in the human rights situation as a precondition for closer ties.

German ambassador Helmut Frick recently told Belarusian media that cooperation was currently impossible because Belarus failed to meet even the minimum standards set by the OSCE. He contrasted this with the path taken by Lithuanian and Latvia, two of Belarus's former Soviet neighbours, which will join the EU in May this year.

Until recently, the Belarusian leader appeared not to care, since his main political ally and trading partner was traditionally Russia. But in the past few months, his relationship with the Kremlin has deteriorated fast over a dispute about Russian gas supplies - to the point where Lukashenko recently said relations had been "poisoned by gas forever".

While an opinion poll conducted by the Independent Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Studies last year showed that more Belarusians favoured plans for a union with Russia than integration with their western neighbours, observers told IWPR that the "gas war" might now begin to tip the balance of opinion.

According to Alexei Fedotov, an analyst with International Institute of Political Research in Minsk, believes the change in the way Russia is viewed could boost the pro-European camp. The authorities handed the opposition a gift by presenting Russia in such a negative light, he said.

The Free Belarus bloc has thus chosen to launch its European campaign at a time when pro-Moscow feeling -at least at the official level - is at its lowest ebb.

The organisers say the campaign is going well, and people are eager to sign the petition.

But of the people interviewed by IWPR, few outside the Free Belarus coalition have much faith that it will succeed in pushing the European agenda in any meaningful way.

First, there is the nature of the petition itself. Because the organisers are not asking people to include their passport details when they sign - normal procedure in the bureaucratic former Soviet states - the document will not count as a legal document, and could not be used to demand a referendum on Europe.

Nor has the campaign received a wholehearted welcome from other parts of the opposition.

Statkevich's party forged European Coalition-Free Belarus together with the Women's Party-Nadezhda and the Charter-97 civil rights group, as a direct response to the creation of a much larger bloc called Five Plus. The latter grouping - formally launched in January - includes most of the opposition parties, ranging from right of centre to the Communists, as well as sitting members of parliament.

Two leading members of Five Plus - the centre-right United Civil Party, UCP, and particularly the nationalist Belarusian Popular Front, BPF - have always occupied a pro-European stance in opposition to Lukashenko's Russian orientation. So neither party is greatly pleased that the left of centre BSDP, which never took such a strong line, is now claiming the European agenda for itself.

UCB leader Anatoly Lebedko said the idea of a petition for EU integration is useful insofar as it raises the profile of European issues in Belarus.

"But Europe will treat it with caution," he told IWPR. Even if one million signatures are collected, he warned that "the Europeans, who are busy dealing with their own problems, will not notice the pro-western ambitions of Belarusians".

Petr Sadovsky, a former Belarusian ambassador to Germany, agrees that drawing up a petition will not be enough. "To join the European Union, the country has to be changed. It is a hard, colossal task. Collecting signatures is just PR," he told IWPR.

Sadovsky sees the petition as a tactic in the BSDP-led coalition's preparations for a general election later this year.

But despite this, any discussion of EU accession is still a useful exercise, he says, "The display of a positive attitude towards Europe is a positive phenomenon. When someone gives thought to what he is actually signing, he undergoes change."

The government could naturally be expected to take a dim view of Statkevich's campaign. To get a more considered view, IWPR approached a ministry official who said he himself disagreed with some of the policies of the government he serves. But nevertheless he remained sceptical about the pro-European coalition's motives.

"Statkevich has decided to remind the public about who he is, ahead of the parliamentary elections. But he won't lead the country into Europe as Moses led his people into the Promised Land," said the official, who asked to remain anonymous.

"As for the advantages of European life, I don't have to be convinced. I'm well aware of them."