Outcome of forthcoming parliamentary race appears to be predetermined

2004-07-14

Starting comment by Kirill Poznyak, editor

Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko on July 14 signed a presidential edict that the first round of elections for the lower chamber of the Belarusian National Assembly, the House of Representatives, should be held on October 14, 2004.

As was the case in 2000, the 2004 elections will be conducted under a two-round majority system in single-seat constituencies. The House's 110 seats are to be filled by persons elected by secret ballot on the basis of universal, free, equal and direct suffrage. Each Representative is elected by the voters in a separate geographic area called an electoral district for a four-year term.

The government plans to spend a total of almost 13 billion rubels (some $6 million) on the elections.

Unlike the 2000 parliamentary campaign, this year's elections are going to see the participation of almost all opposition groups with the exception of the Conservative Christian Party, led by Zenon Poznyak, which is calling for a boycott. However, the Independent Institute of Social, Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS) says with reference to its June national poll that only 6.6 percent of all voters do not plan to go to the polls, whereas 62.6 percent intend to cast their ballots. These figures suggest that there will be a sufficient voter turnout, i.e. more than 50 percent, and that the idea of a boycott will not work.

Opposition politicians who intend to run in the elections have no big illusions about their chance of forming a more or less sizable group in the new House of Representatives. They regard the elections as a prologue to the 2006 presidential poll and a legal opportunity to legally promote their ideas to voters.

Opposition members say that the authorities intend to use administrative tools and may even rig the election. They also complain about unequal conditions for campaigning, pointing to the monopolization of the print and electronic media by the state.

If the elections prove their fears substantiated, the newly elected House of Representatives risks to have international recognition problems. In an effort to avoid this, the authorities have been trying to create an impression that they are determined to conduct a free and fair election.

For instance, on July 8, Belarus' official delegation and the Working Group on Belarus in the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly signed a declaration, pledging to contribute to making the forthcoming parliamentary elections meet OSCE standards for free and fair elections. This implies equal access for candidates to the state-controlled media and political diversity in the electoral commissions on all levels.

However, Lidiya Yermoshina, head of the central election commission, described the declaration as a political document, not legal document.

The Belarusian opposition's chances look bleak because they failed to unify. There are currently three opposition alliances - Five Plus, Free Belarus and Maladaya Belarus.

The IISEPS' poll showed 20 percent of the voters are ready to support opposition candidates, 54 percent intend to vote for independent candidates and 37 percent for government-backed candidates.

This means that the House will be dominated by Lukashenko supporters.