Sociology

One Fourth of Minskers Believe Voting Results Rigged

1. Did you vote in local elections?

Yes

Go over to Question 6

2. Did you vote early or on the main voting day - March 2?

The number of those who voted (55%) is taken for 100%

Shares of those who voted (55%)

Early

On voting day

Go over to Question 4

3. Did you make the decision to vote early on your own or were you forced in any way to do that?

	The number of those who voted early (15%) is taken for 100%	Shares of those who voted early (15%)
I decided to vote early myself	45	7
I was suggested voting early in an "unobtrusive" way but nobody forced me	23	4
I was forced to vote early at the place where I work, study or live	22	3
Other	10	1	Go over to Question 5

4. Did you vote at the polling station or at home (somebody came to your home with a mobile ballot box)?

At the polling station

99,6

At home

0,4

5. What kind of candidate did you choose?

	The number of those who voted (55%) is taken for 100%	Shares of those who voted (55%)
I voted against all candidates	22	12
I spoiled the ballot	6	3
I voted for a specific person	72	40

а) Age:

Young (18-39 years)

Old (40 year and older)

b) Sex:

Opinion poll's results

Statistics of the central election commission

Male

Female

c) Political orientation:

Neutral	44
Opponent of the government	17
Proponent of the government	14
I do no remember	25

d) Occupation:

Unemployed
Entrepreneur	10
Cultural figure (artist, performer, etc.)	4
Journalist	1
Leader or member of a political party	5
Person from the army, police or KGB	2
Industrial enterprise director	6
Scientist	4
Economist	11
Lawyer	8
Other	24
I do not remember	27	Go over to Question 7

6. Why didn't you vote? (Several answers are possible)

I was away	14
Due to health reasons	13
I think elections cannot change anything	46
I did not see any good candidates	26
Other	10
No specific answer	2

7. Do you think the voting results at the local elections in Minsk are rigged or not rigged?

No, not rigged

Yes, rigged

No specific answer

The Minskers were asked the same question in December 2002 during a similar opinion poll. "Do you think the voting results at local elections in March 2003 will be rigged or will not be rigged?" Following is what they answered.

Yes, they will be rigged	14	32
Rather yes, than no	18	32
Rather no, than yes	21	39
No, they will not be rigged	18	39
No specific answer	29	29

As we can see, the skeptical forecasts in December 2002 found further confirmation in March 2003. Thirty-two percent assumed that the voting results would be rigged, and 28 percent (the four-percent difference is within the margin of statistical error) said that that really happened, in their opinion, after March 2.

Methodology. BelaPAN's Sociological Service "Zerkalo" (Mirror) interviewed 500 Minsk residents aged 18 and older, or voting-age people, on a quota sample basis from March 3 to 6, 2003. Quota parameters are sex, age and education. The margin of sampling error does not exceed 1 percent.

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