Sixty Percent of Belarusians Planning to Vote in Local Elections

2002-10-15

The poll found that only one in five respondents knew that the elections to local soviets (councils) would be held in spring 2003. However, 60 percent of those interviewed said they would vote in the elections. This is a rise from 45 percent who were going to vote in the March 1999 local elections. According to the Central Elections Committee (CEC), 64 percent of eligible voters came to the polls in 1999. Nearly 20 percent of those polled this September found it hard to give a definite answer. This promises a rather high voter turnout next spring given that the majority of hesitant voters decide in favor of voting during the campaigning.

Table 1. Are you going to vote in the elections for local soviets?*

*Note by BelaPAN's Zerkalo: All the figures refer to percent. The decimals were omitted as having no significant effect on the total.
**The option were absent from the poll.

Table 2 shows why some of voters do not want to go to the polls.

Table 2. If you are not going to vote [in the local elections] then why? (The respondents could check more than one options.)

The respondents' disbelief in the possibility of candidates unsupported by the authorities to get elected is the main reason for their refusal to vote in the local elections. Twelve percent checked this option. Nine percent of the respondents did not believe that the elections would be free and fair. All in all, nearly 20 percent of those interviewed doubted that results of the spring elections would depend on the voters.

The number of those who were going to vote for candidates supporting Belarusian leader, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, slightly outweighed in April those who would vote for candidates opposing his policies. The situation reversed in September. Moreover, the number of those who think the majority of voters will vote for Lukashenka's supporters has greatly fallen, while those who think the majority will vote for Lukashenka's opponents has grown. (see Table 3).

Table 3. Prospective vote results

Though the local elections are still a long way off, it is already clear that controversies between opposition parties will prevent them from forming a common electoral bloc. Judging by party leaders' statements, there will be two blocs fighting for votes in spring 2003. The left-of-center bloc will include Siarhei Kaliakin's Belarusian Party of Communists, Aliaksandr Bukhvostau's Belarusian Party of Labor and Mikalai Statkevich's Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Narodnaya Hramada". Siarhei Hajdukevich's Liberal Democratic Party and the Women's Party "Nadzeya" might join them. After a recent election of a new party leader, Nadzeya is yet to get registered with the Justice Ministry. The right-of-center bloc is likely to include Vintsuk Viachorka's Belarusian Popular Front, Anatol Liabedzka's United Civic Party and possibly, Stanislau Shushkevich's Belarusian Social Democratic Hramada and Valiantsina Palevikova's United Social Democratic Party. The latter is yet to be registered too.

Voters supporting the right-of-center bloc are traditionally more disciplined and consolidated. The left-of-center bloc, however, leads in prospective vote in local elections (see Table 4).

Table 4. If you will vote for a candidate representing a party which party will it be?

*The poll was conducted before the change in Nadzeya's leadership

It would be wrong, however, to sum up the parties' ratings. Moreover, it is not clear yet how the voters' support will be redistributed after a split in Nadzeya and whether Hajdukevich, who enjoys a lead, will want to form a bloc with any party.

Yet the idea of a common electoral bloc is increasingly popular with the voters (see Table 5).

Table 5. Do you support the idea of forming a bloc of opposition parties in the local elections?