Sociology

Half of Minskers Going to Vote in Spring 2003 Local Elections

2002-11-12

Table 1. Are you going to vote in the spring 2003 elections for local soviets [councils]?

	February 25 - 28, 2002	April 22-25, 2002	July 22-25, 2002	September 18-23, 2002	October 22-25, 2002
Yes	54	54	55	52	51
No	19	19	24	27	21
Difficult to say (have not made up my mind)	27	27	21	21	28

The respondents answers show that the voters' readiness to vote in the local elections has been stable for over six months.

2. Are you going to nominate yourself for local councils?

	July 22-25, 2002	October 22-25, 2002
Yes	4	1
No	93	94
Difficult to say	3	5

3. A candidate of which political views would you vote for?

Supporter of Aliaksandr Lukashenka's policies	17
Opponent of Aliaksandr Lukashenka's policies	15
A candidate avoiding extreme political views	26
Other	6
Difficult to say	36

The poll's results suggest that many Minsk residents do not want political turmoil, preferring middle-of-the-road candidates. Among those ready to vote for supporters of Belarusian ruler, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, 47 percent were aged 50 and above, 46 percent were white-collar workers and pensioners. In the group ready to vote for Lukashenka's opponents, respondents aged 18-49 accounted for 85 percent, engineers for 18 percent, entrepreneurs for 19 percent and students for 18 percent.

4. Do you think the results of the spring 2003 elections for local soviets will be rigged?

Yes, they will be rigged	14
They are likely to be rigged	24
They are unlikely to be rigged	12
No, they will not be rigged	16
Difficult to say	34

Over a third of the respondents (38 percent) suspect a possible fraud during the upcoming local elections, with 14 percent being absolutely sure and 24 percent saying it was "likely." Twenty-eight percent of Minskers maintained an opposite opinion.

5. On whom or what do you pin your hopes of a better life? (More than one answer could be checked)

	September 25-29, 1998	September 28-30, 1999	March 25 - 28, 2002	August 26-29, 2002	October 22-25, 2002
President and his government	15	10	18	11	17
National Assembly	1	1	7	3	3
Left-wing political parties (Communists etc.)	1	1	2	1	1
Right-wing political parties (Belarusian Popular Front, etc.)	5	9	6	3	4
Western aid (foreign investment)	18	25	13	18	17
Aid of Russia and its president	6	7	11	19	20
Strong personality capable of establishing order in society	28	30	21	34	30
Myself	45	55	55	34	45
Other	8	5	8	4	7
Difficult to say	10	5	6	16	10

The poll showed that Minsk residents still rely on themselves for improving their living standards. Respondents pinning their hopes on assistance from Russia outnumber those who relies on Belarusian president and his government. An equal number of people (17 percent) place their hopes on the Western aid and the president. The respondents' hopes for right-wing parties (4 percent) are slightly higher their hopes for the National Assembly (3 percent).

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