Turnover in First Round of Local Election to Exceed 50-percent Threshold

2003-02-25

Elections for local soviets as well as other elections have been regularly monitored by state and independent sociological centers. Unlike the previous years, when poll results were more or less open to the public, they are becoming a state secret today.

Following are results of polls conducted nationwide and in the city of Minsk. They reflect changes in voters' readiness to go to the polls and political preferences of Minskers.

Results of national polls

Fully available are results of national polls taken by the Independent Institute of Social, Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS). In April 2002, the IISEPS polled 1,464 respondents. The September 2002 polled embraced 1,509 respondents and in December 2002, pollsters interviewed 1,478 people.

Unfortunately, the NOVAK center either did not conduct national polls or does not want to publicize the results of its polls.

The results of polls conducted by the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus are classified, especially those concerning pressing social problems.

According to reports by state-run publications, the Institute of Social and Political Studies (ISPS) under the Presidential Administration also tried to forecast the turnout in the March 2 elections in a poll conducted this January. The exact number of the respondents, the date of the poll and other details of the survey were not reported.

Table 1. Respondents' readiness to vote in the March 2 local elections (in percent)

Sociologists predict a rather high turnover in the forthcoming elections. The ISPS poll shows that 75-80 percent of voters will come to the polls on March 2. The IISEPS suggests a turnover at 72 percent.

Results of Minsk polls

BelaPAN's Sociological Service "Zerkalo" has regularly monitored electoral attitudes in the city of Minsk. In each poll, Zerkalo interviewed 500 residents of Minsk on a quota sample basis (by sex, age and education).

The Minsk-based Research Institute of Social, Economic and Political Studies (MRISEPS) also provided some information on the March 2 elections. On September 17-22, 2002, the MRISEPS interviewed 1,090 residents of Minsk.

Table 2. Readiness of Minsk residents to vote in the March 2 local elections based on Zerkalo polls (in percent)

Table 3. Readiness of Minsk residents to vote in the March 2 local elections based on the MRISEPS poll (in percent)

Results of numerous indicate that turnover in Minsk will exceed the 50-percent threshold. But neither candidates supporting the government nor opposition representatives are likely to enjoy the voters' support in the election. Post-election polls and results released by the Central Election Commission will clarify the real attitude of the population to different political forces.

Table 4. If local elections were to be held today, candidates of which political forces would you vote for? (in percent)

*The options were absent from the poll