Opposition Lost 2003 Local Elections Last Year

2003-03-05

By Aliaksandr KLASKOUSKI, editor-in-chief of The Viewer

This article might not as well be written. Last July, I wrote an article titled "Has Opposition Lost 2003 Local Elections?" in No. 395 of The Viewer. Today, one can easily remove the question mark. The March 2 elections took the predicted course.

In the current Belarusian situation, the local election campaign arouses interest mainly in the context of the long-standing confrontation of the political opposition and the regime of Aliaksandr Lukashenka.

In the current Belarusian situation, the local election campaign arouses interest mainly in the context of the long-standing confrontation of the political opposition and the regime of Aliaksandr Lukashenka.

During Lukashenka's rule, the local soviets (councils) have lost almost entirely even the modest powers they had before. The local councils were trampled down by bodies of the presidential vertical, the local executive committees. But in a new strategy of the regime opponents - devised after the failure of the previous election boycotts - local councils are considered the springboard for a comeback to mainstream politics and in the long term, for gaining power. On a closer look, the councils are not really powerless. The Minsk City Council, for instance, elects eight members of the upper chamber of the National Assembly, the Council of the Republic. Imagine eight rebellious Belarusian senators - what is it if not a storm in the bog?

Having proclaimed a change in its approaches to local elections, the opposition, however, proved not ready for them either in terms of organization or psychologically. Lukashenka's opponents have come out of shape during election boycotts. Even parties that did not shun the so-called dirty elections, like Mikalai Statkevich's Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Narodnaya Hramada" (BSDP), did not achieve impressive results in this spring elections either. The election campaign reflected problems that have been long known - the weakness of political opposition, underdevelopment of its regional networks, its alienation from people and its notorious lack of unity. All attempts to come out in a united front sputtered out in mid 2002. The opposition failed to agree even on the division of Minsk constituencies so that to avoid rivalry between democratic candidates. In provinces, on the contrary, the opposition did not have enough strengths to field a candidate in each constituency.

Anticipating deplorable election results, opposition parties clamored in advance against the undemocratic character of the elections. Indeed, the government laboriously eliminated a number of candidates to election commissions and to the soviets. But there was no need of a large-scale weeding primarily because opposition parties nominated few candidates. In addition, many of bidders for seats on election commissions and would-be candidates failed due to their ignorance of legal technicalities. A typical mistake, for instance, was a failure to fill out documents correctly.

Since the early stage of the campaign showed that the opposition would not constitute a real danger in the elections, the authorities did not feel a great need for using administrative pressure, except for ensuring a higher turnout by encouraging people to vote ahead of the election date in order not to spend money for the runoff or repeat elections. As a result, early voting turnout reached a flagrantly high level of 20.7 percent of voters.

The Central Election Commission (CEC) made a wide gesture. Under Belarusian laws, candidates' meetings with voters are equated with rallies, pickets and other mass actions, to hold which the organizers should apply for a permission 15 days in advance. The opposition raised an outcry claiming that the regulation was a stranglehold for candidates. The CEC reached an agreement with executive committees to the effect that permissions for organizing meetings with candidates should be issued immediately, thus beating the opposition's trump card.

In general it was a calm campaign. Elections in many constituencies were uncontested. The candidate-seat ratio in constituencies for villages' and towns' soviets averaged out at 1.1 to one. The ratio was 1.6 to one in regional capitals. Three persons ran for one seat in the 55-member Minsk City Soviet. All in all, a total of 24,010 candidates competed for seats all over the country.

According to the results released by the CEC a few days before the election, the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus was represented by 184 candidates, the Belarusian Party of Communists by 173, the Communist Party of Belarus by 114, the United Civic Party by 76, the Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Narodnaya Hramada" by 69, and the Belarusian Popular Front by 50. In addition, the parties nominated some of their candidates through voter signature collection and by "workers' collectives." But still their number of a drop in the ocean.

At the moment of publication the number of party candidates elected was not known (the results will be released on March 6.) Party headquarters reported very modest figures on Monday, stressing however that it was incomplete information. Anyway, few candidates representing opposition parties managed to get elected or passed the first round. The opposition also condemned numerous violations that took place during the elections, for instance, the authorities' pressure on students, soldiers and other dependent categories to vote early; the removal of some opposition candidates from the race on the eve of election; the infringement on observers rights, etc.

The CEC reported on an usually high turnout - 73.3 percent - nearly as much as was recorded during the 2001 presidential election. The voting resulted in the election of deputies in numbers sufficient for a quorum in 1,664 of 1,672 councils, including the Minsk City Soviet and all the six regional soviets. Repeat election or runoff rounds will be held in some constituencies. But this, clearly, will not affect the general picture.

Such a high turnout was largely ensured by a massive early voting that caused much criticism from the opposition. First, it is much easier to rig early voting ballots. Second, even if there was no fraud, the authorities helped their candidates overcome the threshold in the first round by ensuring a high turnout. But frankly speaking, all these accusations cannot hide the bitter truth for Lukashenka's opponents. The truth is that they lost the first round.

The Belarusian opposition came unprepared for the local elections. The majority of its members set their hopes on the Wets for too long. The recent recognition of the National Assembly by the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly was a cold shower for the opposition too. Now many of the regime opponents must have finally understood that Europe will not create democracy for us. Power should be earned by hard work with voters. After the defeat in the local vote, the opposition has a year left to prepare for parliamentary elections. It is very important to fight for the improvement of the Electoral Code, in particular, against early voting (or at least against its current version that allows manipulation). The opposition should press the government for expanding the rights of observers and opportunities of party members to be selected to election commissions. The main thing is that it should build up forces, think over its tactics and find fresh forms of reaching voters. The opposition should brace up for a no-rules fight with the government.

It is also important to find allies among those who are not engaged in politics but are sensible people advocating changes. There was a time when the radical opposition considered itself a monopolist in the fight for Belarus' future. Now it has found itself on the sidelines of the political process, unable to lead even a thousand people in the streets. Meanwhile, a group of government opponents emerged in the House of Representatives so much despised by the opposition. Such strong and progressive people can be found in all walks of life, in different spheres of activity and institutions. Polls show that the number of Lukashenka's supporters decreases while the proportion of those opposed to his rule increases. But, paradoxically, the opposition's meetings and demonstrations gather fewer and fewer attendants. In other words, supporters of changes in Belarus greatly outnumber members of all parties taken together. The problem is to learn to use this force for the sake of transformation of Belarus' political and public system.