Will Opposition Succeed in Local Elections?

2002-10-15

On October 16, representatives of Belarusian opposition parties are expected to gather at the International Educational Center in Minsk to attend a public hearing on the democratization of electoral regulations. The event being is organized by the Consultative Council of Opposition Political Parties (CCOPP), which includes the Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) led by Vintsuk Viachorka, the United Civic Party (UCP) led by Anatol Liabedzka, the Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC) led by Siarhei Kaliakin, the Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Narodnaya Hramada" (BSDP) led by Mikalai Statkevich, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Siarhei Hajdukevich, the Belarusian Social Democratic Hramada (BSDH) led by Stanislau Shushkevich, and some other parties. The hearing is expected to be attended by Vaclov Stankevic, a member of the Lithuanian parliament and rapporteur on Belarus at the Human Rights Committee of the Council of Europe, a representative of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, as well as members of Belarus' National Assembly and officials of the Central Election Commission.

The UCP suggested inviting members of the Union of Right Forces faction in Russia's State Duma. But the BPF, Narodnaya Hramada and the LDP turned down the idea.

The participation of the Russian delegation in the hearing on the democratization of Belarus' Electoral Code "would be helpful, especially given special relations between Belarus and Russia," said Liabedzka. "We could make a comparative analysis of the Russian and Belarusian electoral laws, and I do not think it would be in Belarus' favor."

Objections lodged by Narodnaya Hramada to the participation of Russian politicians in the hearing came as no surprise. The party launched a signature-collection campaign for the Declaration of Belarus' Democratic Forces, which calls on the Belarusian people to unite in the fight for their freedom and independence. The declaration also cautioned Belarusian political and public leaders against holding secret talks on the future of Belarus' independence "with politicians and other representatives of Russia or another third country." The appeal stems from the publication of a wiretapped record of a phone conversation between Liabedzka and Boris Nemtsov, leader of the Union of Right Forces. They discussed possible alternatives to Belarusian leader Aliaksandr Lukashenka, who would suit Moscow.

Hajdukevich's party was the first to sign the declaration. The LDP and Narodnaya Hramada have been coordinating efforts for quite a while, both outside and within the CCOPP.

"Russia cannot be a model of democracy for Belarus," said Viachorka, explaining why the BPF was opposed to the presence of Russians at the hearing. "Nemtsov considers millions of Belarusians who are against the Belarusian-Russian union to be insane," he added, referring to Nemtsov's statement in which he said that all normal people support the Belarusian-Russian union.

This episode is but one illustration of how difficult the process of forging a coalition of opposition parties is. In their clashes, opposition leaders take opponents' words out of the context and divide the whole opposition into real patriots and the fifth column. Meanwhile, following the 2003 spring elections, the opposition should gear up for the parliamentary elections in 18 months' time.

The CCOPP is haunted by crises. Several meetings of the Council failed only because representatives of some of the parties did not show up, and the meetings lacked a quorum. Rumors emerged that the CCOPP was about to disintegrate. The parties responded with a statement accusing journalists of spreading idle rumors. The CCOPP was functioning effectively, the statement said. But there is no smoke without fire.

The public hearing on the democratization of the Belarusian electoral regulations was to have been held under the CCOPP's aegis in early September. The participants were expected to discuss the package of amendments to the Electoral Code proposed by the authorities, as well as principles of creating an election coalition of opposition parties. But the meeting was postponed until mid October due to disagreements over the coalition-building principles.

Not all CCOPP members agreed to the proposal of forming an opposition bloc in the local elections under which local cells of political parties would nominate a single candidate in each constituency.

In the long run, the parties signed an agreement on cooperation. Local cells have started consultations on distributing the constituencies. With setbacks at every step, the opposition parties have created a formal coalition. The results of the March 2 local elections will show its effectiveness.

Among the opposition's proposals to improve the Electoral Code is the requirement for representatives of political parties to be included in election commissions and for observers to have the right to have a copy of the final statement immediately after the vote count, as well as to observe the vote count. This, they believe, will reduce the risk of ballot-rigging. The opposition also proposes to adopt a mixed member proportional representation system and to abolish the current procedure of early voting. The opposition calls it a minimum package of amendments that can help make the elections relatively democratic.

But the government is deaf to the opposition's arguments that the improvement of the Electoral Code will ensure the international recognition of the elections. The authorities seem as little concerned about it as they were before.

So it is a question whether the opposition will succeed in the local elections. With elections held by the government's rules and the opposition torn by discord, only incurable optimists can cherish hopes for success.