Belarusian Opposition Close to Disintegration

2002-10-29

Even opposition leaders are beginning to realize and acknowledge the fact that the opposition is experiencing a crisis. Earlier, internal criticism was a taboo in the opposition camp. The opposition was as allergic to it as the government. No wonder - they all mix in the same, and rather primitive, political system.

Yet street democracy is the only outlet for the Belarusian opposition and its supporters to publicly state their position. The opposition has scheduled for November 17 a mass demonstration called "Belarus. Democracy. Well-being." Many experts doubt that it will gather many participants and whether it should be staged at all. Some opposition groups have their doubts too. The United Civic Party (UCP), for instance, said it would not take part in the protest.

Anatol Liabedzka, the UCP leader, said the demonstration was poorly organized and was likely to fail because of a small following. It will raise many eyebrows in the world if it attracts some 2,000-3,000 participants, as it will create an impression that they the only ones who are concerned about the country's independence, democracy and well-being. In short, the UCP does not want to share the disgrace with other opposition parties and chose to withdraw from the preparation for the demonstration.

According to Liabedzka, a street protest can be a success if it gathers about 20,000-30,000 people. He said the November 17 demonstration was unlikely to have such a large scale. Instead, he suggested that the opposition should prepare for the next spring's street protest campaign, which is to include three big demonstrations - on anniversaries of the proclamation of independence by the Belarusian National Republic, of the Chernobyl nuclear accident and a socioeconomic protest. In preparing for the demonstration, Liabedzka said, the opposition should target each population group individually, addressing workers, students and other groups with specific messages.

Other opposition parties have not supported the UCP's position so far. Some may yet face the truth and acknowledge that it is not only the situation in the country that needs changing but the opposition's tactics too. It is time it stopped holding formal events. People are already too disappointed.

It is not unlikely, though, that behind the UCP's refusal to take part in the November 17 protest were disagreements among the opposition. Several leaders of the UCP's cells in Minsk recently seceded from the party. Observers called it the beginning of a split in the UCP. Liabedzka, however, believes, that these leaders left under the pressure of not only the government but some political parties, too. The UCP leader avoided direct accusations when speaking about unfair competition in the opposition camp. "I can compare it with a marathon race. Everybody runs together, side by side, but when somebody shoots five steps ahead somebody trips him up from behind. We would not trust such people," he said.

Add here a latent conflict between the UCP and the Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Narodnaya Hramada" led by Mikalai Statkevich, when the latter started collecting signatures to a declaration in support of Belarus' independence. The declaration cautioned Belarusian politicians against holding secret talks on the future of Belarus' independence with representatives of other countries. The appeal alluded to the phone conversation between Liabedzka and Boris Nemtsov, leader of the Union of Right Forces faction in the Russian State Duma. The wiretapped record of the conversation, in which they discussed Moscow's search for an alternative to Aliaksandr Lukashenka was published by some Russian and Belarusian newspapers.

The Belarusian opposition is also split on the preparations for the local elections scheduled for March 2, 2003. According to Liabedzka, the UCP advocates "combined efforts within the Belarusian opposition but not its collectivization." The UCP leader also believes that it is not necessary to forge a tight nation-wide coalition for the local elections. It is not a purely political campaign, he said, and it is more important to stir public opinion rather than get elected.

The opposition seems to share views on the goals of the local election campaign. On October 16, the Consultative Council of Belarus' eight major opposition parties held a public hearing on the democratization of Belarus' electoral regulations. The opposition arrived at the conclusion that while it was unable at the moment to push through its amendments to Electoral Code aimed to ensure free and fair elections, it would take part in the local elections even though local soviets (councils) had no powers.

The opposition's participation in the elections pursues the following goals. First, to use the election campaign to bring home to Belarusians an alternative view of the situation in the country and stir up the public opinion. Second, to ensure the election of at least some opposition activists thus showing that the opposition has some strength even in the unfavorable conditions. All this should be viewed as a preparation for the next campaign, the parliamentary elections.

The distribution of electoral districts, especially in the capital city of Minsk, remains a stumbling bloc for opposition parties. For instance, the UCP plans to run 26 candidates, whereas the Belarusian Popular Front is going to nominate 40 people for Minsk's 52 electoral districts. The opposition may not work out a compromise in regional centers, either. Thus it may happen that in dozens of districts, representatives of several opposition parties will vie for a seat in the local council.

Refusing to take part in the pro-independence demonstration scheduled for November 17, the UCP showed enough courage to face the truth on the one hand. On the other, it was a sign that the opposition's old tactics and strategy are politically irrelevant. The opposition leaders have now two ways: to realize mistakes and offer voters new ideas and forms of struggle, or to leave and give place to a new generation of politicians, if the opposition has nurtured any.