Local Elections May Be Good Training to Opposition

Members of regional, city, district and village soviets elected in 1999 were largely inactive. During the four past years, no local soviet came up with a socially significant initiative. They never voiced publicly a personal or joint protest against the despotism of executive authorities at different levels.

Who are those that made a bid for election this year? What motives drive candidates and those who stand behind them in the fight for seats that promise no power?

Actors in the forthcoming local elections fall into three groups with absolutely different motives. The first group is made up by executives, from the top echelon to the lower ranks. It is vital for the executive branch to have an overwhelming majority in local soviets. First, with the view to legitimizing the current system of government, local soviets are pictured both to the domestic public and international community as real self-government bodies representing people's interests. Second, through the constitutional amendments, the government empowered local soviets to elect higher bodies. For example, the Minsk City Council consisting of 55 members elects seven members of the National Assembly's Council of the Republic (the upper chamber). Third, silent and acquiescent local deputies are a buffer between the government and the increasingly disgruntled population. Local soviets must dry the tears of the old and disabled and serve as a barrier to people's anger towards the higher authorities.

The second group is political and civil opposition. Four years ago, at the peak of the government's harassment against the opposition, seats on local councils were overwhelmingly taken by the government's voiceless supporters. Today the situation in different. The government will no longer be able to choreograph a game with a foregone result. Even if a handful of oppositionists are elected to soviets at any level, they will get an opportunity to participate in decision-making and implement decisions in practice. They will show to voters their ability to stand up for their interests not only in word but in deed. Isles of democracy that will emerge in local government bodies are likely to attract those who so far are strangers to the fight for democracy. An example of similar transformation is the National Assembly's House of Representatives (the lower chamber) where even some of those who in 2000 were propelled there by the authorities have turned into rebels. This process may well result in the formation of a national union of democratically-minded deputies.

Besides, any elections in an authoritarian country are the only opportunity for the regime opponents for the legal and unfettered targeting of voters so as to raise their political, economic and legal awareness. A network of coalitions and informal centers that are created during the local campaign will be useful in the following parliamentary and presidential campaigns. It became evident that the opposition has many generals, especially some parties, but lacks soldiers. Elections for local soviets, like a military exercise, will become a training for the soldiers of opposition.

The activity of political parties is well understandable because the ultimate goal of any party is power. All parties invariably use the following methods to achieve their ambitious goals:

- organizational work, i.e. increasing the membership and the number of party cells and strengthening them;

- ideological work, i.e. propaganda of the party's ideas and raising people's political awareness;

- raising the party's international rating;

- creating and strengthening political and socio-political blocs for joint activity.

Strangely enough, some parties refused to take part in the elections. Yet their passivity has a deeply concealed reason. The elections are a litmus test of a party's influence. During the elections, parties must display their organizational and human resources. It is not a secret that some parties in Belarus are called "couch parties," meaning that all their members, including near and distant relations, can be accommodated on one couch. Clearly such parties cannot nominate enough candidates, have their initiative groups registered and place election observers at polls. The simplest solution in such a thorny situation is of course a vociferous boycott of the elections and clamor against the intrigues of the odious regime.

The third group is made of seemingly neutral candidates whom the authorities force to seek election in order to leave fewer seats to the opposition. But for leaders of enterprises, organizations or governmental agencies departments, a deputy's position is not a privilege but rather an additional burden. They do not want to make commitments to voters. Besides, a candidate must submit his income statement. Officials do not want such publicity.

That is why by the beginning of registration, there were only 26,000 nominees per 24,000 seats in local soviets. Among would-be candidates that support the government are either former deputies who are a real nothing without their deputy position, or those who want to conceal their offences under the deputy immunity, or businesspeople who seek preferences.

The authorities did their best to bar the regime opponents from election commissions and to eliminate them during the candidate registration. The election fraud machinery will be working against those opposition nominees that managed to get registered. Possibilities to rig the votes are many, including early voting, at-home voting, calculation of votes at polls and their rigging during the transportation of records from district commissions to commissions of a higher level.

Still, the elections may be a good training field for the opposition. Many people will see that the government shamelessly manipulates their opinions. The world community will undoubtedly have enough evidence that democratic elections are impossible in this country under the current regime. All this will encourage different forces that influence the Belarusian political process toward fighting for democratization and freedom.