Mikalai STATKEVICH: "We expect at least a couple of dozens of our comrades to make it to local soviets"

2002-12-17

Local Commissions

There will be more representatives of political parties in local commissions, but only in districts where they were barred from district commissions and where there are many constituencies. Where there are 10 constituencies in a district the authorities can let in opposition representatives in one or two commissions and create a semblance of democracy. But they will be not represented in one-constituency districts. The reason lies in the falsification of two types. Ballot-rigging is a traditional type of electoral fraud that ensures 10 to 15 percent to the authorities' picks. The second type involves election commissions' records, when even commission members do not know the real result of the vote. They sign a blank record, which is later filled in by the commission head at the dictation of district executive authorities. Such falsification has no limits.

Figures reflecting the representation of opposition parties in territorial commissions suggest that the authorities have evidently given preference to those candidates to the commissions who were "nominated in accordance with the regulations," i.e. tested and loyal candidates. In local commissions, the proportions will be smoother, but it is obvious already now that of all political parties, the authorities will let in mostly Communists and Liberal Democrats, because they, unfortunately, will not fight. Representatives of the Liberal Democratic Party normally do not show up in commissions, while members of the Belarusian Party of Communists are, as a rule, elderly people who care about their health condition and will not argue with the commission. I hope there will be several dozens of representatives of Narodnaya Hramada in local commissions.

Candidate Registration

Right after the election date was declared, the authorities started registering our party's cells. There are 51 party units registered with regional justice departments. The Minsk regional unit was registered a couple of days after the election date was set after a month's waiting. So the party's regional committee has no right to nominate candidates to the Minsk Regional Council, as it "did not exist" at the moment of setting the elections. Which means that the party is left the only option to nominate its candidates by gathering signatures. Which means that in big cities, the authorities will try to eliminate them at the signature-gathering stage. But it is not a big deal to gather 150 signatures. One can gather more than that, so the officials will find it hard to pick at the nominees. That is why they will resort to seven documents that a candidate must submit to eliminate party representatives. Our party had 257 candidates as of December 10. The figure is expected to rise to over 300. Even with a thorough preparation, nearly 30 percent of our candidates will be eliminated. And even that looks optimistic.

Election Commissions

There are special techniques of influencing election commission members, which require much effort, manpower and time. There should be several persons per one commission member to give them a just-in-time moral support to help resist the authorities' pressure to rig the election results. This is the only method of dealing with commissions until we win the elections.

Campaigning

The government is doing its best to promote its candidates. A person can be long touted on TV, radio and in the press before we know that he/she is a candidate. The election campaign will be held without posters, as each candidate will be given about $50 for campaigning. Leaflets are likely to be printed under the government control. During the 1999 local election campaign, the government printed leaflets for candidates - nearly 1,100 per 20,000 constituents. The leaflets were protected by a color microfont, which made it impossible to have them copied. The only thing left is to print the party's leaflets, but they are ineffective, as parties have a negative image. We have also such options as picketing and a door-to-door campaigning. In Minsk, one man cannot carry out the campaigning all on his own. It takes a team of at least ten people who would work non-stop. A volunteer sleeps four hours a day during real elections. He/she distributes leaflets in the morning, stands in a picket in the daytime, campaigns from door to door in the evening and pastes posters in the night. We tried to provide such a team to each of our candidates. And we hope that at least our party will show some kind of campaigning.

Voting

In the provinces, ballot rigging will prevail and the government will apply its administrative levers. It is difficult to do otherwise when there are one or two constituencies in the district. The rigging of commission records will dominate in Minsk and regional centers during elections for regional councils. The city of Minsk is the most sensitive zone for the government. The 55-member Minsk City Council nominates 7-8 persons to the Council of the Republic (the upper chamber of the National Assembly).

The composition of candidates in Minsk constituencies will be simple: they will include a government's candidate, a seemingly independent businessman and an opposition representative. It will be bad if there are several opposition candidates. Only a one-constituency-one-candidate approach can pool enough support for an opposition candidate. Only then there is a chance that he/she will pass the first round and challenge the government-handpicked candidate in the runoff. If there are two candidates of democratic parties they will split the votes, and the second round will be a government candidate vs. a pro-government businessman.

Outcome

We expect at least a couple of dozens of our comrades to make it to local soviets. Where they will, there will be a springboard for running for the House of Representatives (the lower chamber of parliament). The opposition should make its way to the government step by step. It should, after all, learn to govern. Such skills cannot be acquired while it is sitting in its marginalized niche. This is a long and painful process but there is no other way.

By the beginning of December, territorial election commissions totaled 1,673, including 1,518 village commissions, 117 district commissions, 11 city commissions in towns of district subordination, and 20 city commissions in towns of regional subordination. The commissions have a total of 13,448 staff. Among the 61 members of political parties on the commissions, 21 belong to the Communist Party of Belarus, 19 to the Belarusian Party of Communists, 11 to the Liberal Democratic Party, five to the Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Narodnaya Hramada," and two to the Agrarian Party. The United Civic Party, the Belarusian Patriotic Party and the Social Democratic Party of People's Concord were given one seat each.