Sociology
LUKASHENKO'S ELECTORAL RATING VARIES FROM 44 TO 47 PERCENT
The poll revealed a growth in Lukashenko's rating.
Answering an open question, 44 percent of the respondents said they would
vote for him. This compares to 47 percent of those who marked him off
in the closed question. Forty-four percent said they trusted Lukashenko
and 52 percent said they liked him to some extent.
The table below gives a comparative picture of voter groups in relation
to their attitude to the presidential candidates [Semyon Domash, ex-governor
of Grodno region, who withdrew from the race on August 22 in Gonacharik's
favor, Sergei Gaidukevich, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, Vladimir
Gonacharik, chairman of the Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus, opposition's
single candidate, and the incumbent leader Aleksandr Lukashenko].
BelaPAN note: Figures in brackets in the upper row serve as a total
for calculating percentage points in the columns below.
|
Voters' characteristics
|
Would vote for: (closed
question)
|
|
Sergei Gaidukevich (4)
|
Vladimir Gonacharik (11)
|
Semyon Domash (12)
|
Aleksandr Lukashenko (47)
|
|
Readiness to vote in the election:
|
|
Will vote (57)
|
48
|
62
|
50
|
70
|
|
Are likely to vote (31)
|
45
|
34
|
39
|
27
|
|
Are unlikely to vote (6)
|
5
|
3
|
6
|
1
|
|
Will not vote (4)
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
No specific answer/No answer (2)
|
2
|
1
|
4
|
2
|
|
Would vote for (open question):
|
|
Gaidukevich (3)
|
79
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Gonacharik (11)
|
-
|
85
|
-
|
-
|
|
Domash (12)
|
-
|
-
|
84
|
-
|
|
Lukashenko (44)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
94
|
|
Reasons for voting for the candidate:
|
|
He stands up for the interests of people like
me (27)
|
23
|
32
|
30
|
39
|
|
He has real power and is able to improve the
situation in the country (23)
|
22
|
27
|
20
|
35
|
|
I have liked this politician for a long time
(10)
|
25
|
17
|
16
|
9
|
|
Most of my acquaintances support him (11)
|
19
|
15
|
21
|
11
|
|
Would not vote for the candidate under
any circumstances:
|
|
Gaidukevich (14)
|
-
|
10
|
12
|
22
|
|
Gonacharik (13)
|
13
|
-
|
5
|
23
|
|
Domash (7)
|
8
|
6
|
-
|
12
|
|
Lukashenko (28)
|
58
|
75
|
69
|
-
|
|
Believe the president will be elected:
|
|
In the first round (48)
|
28
|
24
|
26
|
64
|
|
In the second round (36)
|
58
|
71
|
62
|
23
|
|
Expectations of the fairness of the election:
|
|
Are convinced the election will be fair (18)
|
5
|
2
|
2
|
34
|
|
Hope the election will be fair (40)
|
44
|
23
|
30
|
54
|
|
Doubt the election will be fair (27)
|
36
|
50
|
50
|
7
|
|
Are convinced the election will not be fair
(11)
|
15
|
24
|
19
|
2
|
|
Believe the majority will vote for:
|
|
Gaidukevich (1)
|
22
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
Gonacharik (5)
|
3
|
39
|
4
|
0
|
|
Domash (4)
|
3
|
1
|
27
|
0
|
|
Lukashenko (74)
|
47
|
38
|
49
|
95
|
|
If the election results are rigged:
|
|
Will put up with them because they cannot
be changed (43)
|
37
|
31
|
29
|
54
|
|
Will take part in mass protests to try and
change the results(11)
|
22
|
31
|
21
|
6
|
|
Will not believe the results, will be very
upset, but will not take part in mass protests (28)
|
35
|
34
|
37
|
21
|
The table shows two notable trends. First, the ratings of the two candidates
of the democratic coalition [Gonacharik and Domash] have grown. Gonacharik's
open rating shot from 1 percent in April and June to 11 percent in August.
Domash's figures are 3 percent, 3 percent and 12 percent, respectively.
The closed ratings of Gonacharik and Domash have leveled (11 and 12 percent,
respectively), meaning they have become high-profile politicians for the
voters. Second, the poll showed a growing merge of Gonacharik's and Domash's
supporters. The percentage of voters who would vote both for Gonacharik
and Domash grew from 50 percent in June to three-quarters in August. A
total overlap of their supporters is hardly possible, but it can reach
about 90 percent.
The results of the poll are not enough to give a precise forecast of the
election's outcome. First, during the three weeks left [the poll was taken
in early August], the public opinion may undergo changes under the influence
of different factors, both in favor of the opposition's single candidate
and the current ruler.
Second, public opinion is constantly fluctuating. The voters' last-minute
decision can be motivated by any factor. But it is unlikely that the public
opinion will suddenly swing in Lukashenko's or Gonacharik's favor, because
any potential factors of change will act in both directions and counterpoise
each other to some extent.
