Sociology
MOST MINSK RESIDENTS BELIEVE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE SHAMMED
2001-08-01
MOST MINSK RESIDENTS BELIEVE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
WILL BE SHAMMED
by Leonid MIKEICHIKOV, director of BelaPAN's Sociological
Service "Zerkalo" (Mirror)
From July 10 to 13, BelaPAN's Sociological Service
"Zerkalo" (Mirror) interviewed 500 Minsk residents aged 18 and older on
a quota sample basis. The margin of sampling error does not exceed 1 percent.
Some of the results are compared to the results
of similar polls conducted earlier. All the previous polls evaluated 500-600
Minsk residents representing various socio-demographic groups aged 18
and older. Since the decimals were omitted as having no significant effect,
the total does not always equal 100 percent. All the figures refer to
percent.
1. Are you going to vote in this fall's presidential election?
(The respondents could tick one answer.)
|
|
April 28 - May 3, 2001
|
June 12-14, 2001
|
July 10-13, 2001*
|
|
Yes, I will
|
53
|
64
|
78
|
|
I rather will
|
23
|
15
|
|
|
I will rather not
|
8
|
6
|
10
|
|
No, I will not
|
8
|
11
|
|
|
No specific answer
|
8
|
4
|
12
|
*The questionnaire had three options of an answer:
"Yes, I will", "No, I will not" and "No specific answer".
2. Whose role will be pivotal for the outcome of the presidential election?
(The respondents could tick one answer.)
|
|
February 22 - March 1, 2001
|
June 12-14, 2001
|
July 10-13, 2001
|
|
Belarus' people/voters)
|
39
|
38
|
33
|
|
Governmental agencies
|
20
|
26
|
31
|
|
Trade unions
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
|
Opposition
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
|
Russia
|
8
|
8
|
10
|
|
West
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
|
Other
|
5
|
3
|
2
|
|
No specific answer
|
19
|
18
|
16
|
The results of the July poll are similar to those received earlier, with
one exception: the number of respondents who believe the outcome of the
election will depend on the authorities has grown from 20 percent in March
to 31 percent in July. Only a third of the respondents indicated that
they could exert a decisive influence on the outcome of the presidential
election.
The respondents' answers to the next question (Table 3) show that the
majority expect the election results to be shammed.
3. Do you think the results of the 2001 presidential election will
be shammed?
|
|
April 28 - May 3 2001
|
June 12-14, 2001
|
July 10-13, 2001
|
|
Yes, they will
|
39
|
42
|
53
|
|
No, they will not
|
13
|
23
|
16
|
|
No specific answer
|
48
|
35
|
31
|
4. Are you going to vote before or on the polling day?
|
Before the polling day
|
6
|
|
On the polling day
|
68
|
|
No specific answer
|
26
|
5. Why do you think Natalya Masherova quit the presidential race?
|
This is the first time I hear about her bid
|
16
|
|
Because of the authorities' pressure
|
23
|
|
Because she was unsure of her victory
|
15
|
|
Because she did not believe the election would
be fair
|
12
|
|
Because she understood that a woman could
not be elected Belarus' president yet
|
12
|
|
Being a dummy bidder, she did as she was told
to
|
9
|
|
Because she understood she would not cope
with the president's role
|
7
|
|
Because she was offered money or a position
for withdrawing from the race
|
4
|
|
Other
|
2
|
