Mikhail MARINICH: "Belarus unfortunately has become an outcast country"
2001-07-19
How did it happen that Aleksandr Lukashenko' challengers come not only from among the opposition but from those who hold key government positions or those who are traditionally loyal to the authorities - people like yourself, Vladimir Goncharik [chairman of the Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus], Aleksandr Yaroshuk [chairman of the Belarusian Union of Agro-industrial Workers], etc.?
This is not by accident. More and more people representing different levels of power hierarchy can see that during Lukashenko's seven-year rule Belarus has found itself isolated from Europe and the civilized world and has become an outcast country. There is no other country in the European continent that would be so much rejected by the outward world. Due to constant violations of the Constitution and the substitution of law with decrees and edicts we have ailing economy, a hand-to-mouth existence of people, clampdown on any dissent and absence of rights and freedoms. No one wants to deal with us, and everyone openly turns one's back on us. There are plenty of examples of the kind. This spring, Riga and Helsinki hosted the Days of Belarus' Economy. Prime Minister Vladimir Yermoshin arrives in Latvia to open the National Exhibition and the Days of Economy. What happens next? The Latvian president refuses to meet with him, as well as other officials. It took us great pains to hold a "working breakfast" with the Latvian prime minister. Is that normal? In Helsinki, the Finnish authorities denied our ministers the right to participate in the exhibition and to hold meetings. Why? Because Lukashenko has broken relations with the European Union, with the civilized world. Is it possible to put up with a situation when your country is called the last totalitarian regime in Europe? The preservation of the existing dictatorship will lead Belarus to a national disaster. Therefore, the power circles, officials of all ranks, scientific circles, the intellectuals and just people of sense increasingly understand that it is necessary to change the situation and use the presidential election as a civilized way to replace the current authorities.
In your judgment, are there many sensible people among the officials, in the government agencies?
There are a great lot of such people both among them and in society at large. Everybody got tired of this impoverishment, lawlessness, permanent deceit, intimidation, disrespect for one's people… These people make more than two-thirds of the country's voters, according to my information. They are ready to support changes and common sense, they value predictability that my supporters and I preach for the sake of changing the situation in Belarus. I believe that common sense will prevail.
What can you and your team offer to the voters, how are you going to win their favor?
The main objectives of my team are laid down in the first statement that I made when I submitted to the Central Election Commission the documents necessary to register my support group. It outlines the most important political and socio-economic changes, which will create an efficient economy. All conditions for national accord and democratization of society will be created. It is necessary that the tax pressure be lifted, enterprises of all forms of ownership have an opportunity to develop and supply [their products] to the domestic and foreign markets, instead of the storehouses.
Belarus will not survive without real economic changes, above all in industry and agriculture, without promoting market relations, private business, liberalization of foreign trade and attracting investment.
Still, where is your main support and what resource do you rely on?
Our strength comes from the support of officials of all levels of power, who have a huge professional and intellectual potential. We are supported by intellectuals - teachers, doctors, scientists, authors, artists and actors. We enjoy the support of industrialists, workers of construction industry, small and medium-sized business, as well as big business. Thus my support and strength lie in different groups of Belarusian society. I believe that very soon we will gain sympathy among peasants, too.
How long do you think will it take to change the situation in the economy?
The current situation in the economy is extremely difficult. It will take at least 18 months to change it. That is to say, during 18 months it is necessary to change the conditions of economic development and the tax system, to introduce entirely new approaches to attract domestic and foreign investment; it is necessary to create legal and legislative conditions for the development of small and medium-sized businesses. A man must feel free, then he will work for the good of society and himself. He must know that there is a law behind him, which will not prosecute him but will help promote private and state-run production. The extortion by the state will be eradicated. The rule of law will be restored. The law will not be substituted with edicts and decrees. Businessmen will be able to return from exile, they will be given an opportunity to return the capital they took out of the country and to invest it in business in our territory. Businessmen, industrialists and society in general will feel free, and you will see how easily and quickly they will create new jobs and new products, because they will work for their own good and the country's economy. In short, during 18 moths Belarus can reach the 1994-1995 level.
And then the $100 monthly wage will become a reality?
Note how the normal world assesses the well-being. The living standards are the main criterion. How can real people benefit from the everyday TV and radio droning about a GDP growth in Belarus and beating the targets? Does it allow them to earn more or does it make prices go down? Everything is different here. When an incapable ruler cannot provide a normal life to people, [the authorities] start thinking how to cheat and deceive people. Hence the endless talk about some great government achievements. There are no achievements. Lukashenko's squeezing the industry and economy in general and his promise of a $100 wage is just demagogy. And nothing more! Today, such a wage is not consistent with the reality of the economy. Formally, the problem can be allegedly solved. In reality, if the wage is set at $100 it will trigger a price growth on food products, housing, transport, medicines, etc. It means that people will be deceived again. The economy is completely lifeless. Lukashenko's actions are fraught with great consequences. I wish the government would not make this insane step.
You have presented a gloomy picture.
But a real one. I have always stood up against populism, pondered every word, and measured thrice before making a promise. But I want to say now that if our team comes to power a $200-250 monthly wage will become a reality very soon. It will happen in a natural way on the basis of real economic changes when professionals take the matter in their hands. I have no prejudices against a person for his views. I am ready to appoint to key positions competent, smart and capable people. The established system of power in which poorly educated and ignorant people come to power, although their only merit is the ability to hang to the ruler's words, is at the end of its resources. Only with real economic transformation will the Belarusian population feel the results of professional managers' work in one year or 18 months at a maximum. I like the pragmatic and sensible actions of a new Russian team in this respect. On July 4, for instance, I listened with great pleasure to the Russian premier. He said nothing about a gross product. [Mikhail] Kasyanov spoke about the growth in the living standards of the Russians and about the next planned wage rise. This is concrete care about people, not just empty and unrealizable fables.
In 1995 and at the beginning of 1996, many people did earn a $100 wage. The question that arises today is what happened during these 5-6 years? Why did we plunge so low and lost everything good we had in the country's economy?
Everything went well while Lukashenko listened to the government and intelligent people. But soon he began to increasingly alienate from them. After the victory in the November 1996 referendum it became obvious that he takes no one's advice. The president has felt himself God-almighty. As a result, Belarus, unfortunately, has not made a step forward to an efficient economy, but on the contrary is falling downhill. A normal economy cannot exist for the sake of fine figures only, as it is the case here. In normal countries it really works for man. It is so natural that no one talks about it. Here, the top authorities are doing everything vice versa. And there is only one way out - to change the system of power. The presidential election gives such an opportunity. A opportunity to solve our problems in a peaceful normal way through people's voting.
How will the Belarusian-Russian relations develop if you come to power?
The way they should have developed. Both in Moscow and Minsk, Lukashenko's empty mantra about the Slavic union, a single state, etc., have stuck in the throat of all normal leaders. Due to Lukashenko's policy of populism and his attempts to pursue personal interests in Russia, we have ended up with a zero result from the Belarusian-Russian union. I am firmly convinced that Belarus and Russia should first of all implement a supreme trade and economic form of cooperation, namely the Customs Union. As a result, the Russians and Belarusians will see the specific results of cooperation. Then one will not have to speak times and again about the advantages of the document. The Customs Union will become attractive in practice. It will be clear to people. Then the economic aspect will become dominant and define the further stages of Belarusian-Russian cooperation. I am glad that the president and head of cabinet of the Russian Federation share this position.
Together with the experts from the Russian Ministry of External Economic Relations, Ministry of Economy, customs agencies, etc., we developed a package of documents required. I thank my luck that I was involved in that. The Customs Union started working and yielded the first results. If politicians with the Belarusian president in charge had not forced events our people would live in a quite different way today.
Many people wonder why you declared you presidential bid so late.
I did not publicize my intentions till the last moment. I think it is clear why. It was important that the preparations we made with our supporters remain secret, it was important to prevent the appearance of spies among us at the very first stage. An early unveiling of our plans would trigger many negative consequences. We were underground in fact, waiting for a constitutional moment to come out to people openly.
