Leonid SINITSYN: "Belarus has to show good political will"

2001-07-11

- It is obvious that Belarus and Russia cannot pursue a common foreign policy because of their different sizes. Nevertheless, the current Belarusian head of state, following Russia, is trying to develop bilateral relations with Middle East and Africa, promote strategic partnership with China and get to the European market through Latin America. Those are major tasks assigned to Belarusian diplomats by the country's government. Do you think such foreign policy is realistic and meets the national interests of Belarus?

- Partners should be looked for wherever possible. A one-vector foreign policy is economically detrimental for a state desperate for investments. It is another matter that even in its foreign policy, a country should be guided by common mathematical models. What is the shortest distance between two points? A straight line. Belarus is located on the way from Russia to Central and Eastern Europe. The country should not turn its back on all the benefits ensuing from its position. If Russia is trying to enter Europe by building its economic model similarly to market states, we should not be so resistant to reform inside our own country but follow Russia's cue in this respect. And Russia - being interested in modernizing the former "assembly shop" of the Soviet Union to an up-to-date level, will help us to approach Europe much quicker. When the Belarusian head of state says that he is not going to lead the country along the Russian way, it is logical to ask him: so what way he prefers? Cuba's or North Korea's? Those are good countries, I am not against them, they are worthy of respect in a sense. But to live as if my country is an island in an ocean is no longer possible. And one of objectives for Belarusian diplomats is to promote market-based economic models and democratic ideals inside Belarus, not to renounce justified reproaches.

- Of all western countries, Germany is the largest trading partner of Belarus. The Belarusian authorities have suddenly asked representatives of Germany's MAN and Lufthansa to vacate their residencies recently and settled the country's parliamentarians in those apartments. It's been six years that Belarus fails to ratify an inter-governmental agreement about taking care of World War II soldier graves. Russia and Ukraine have already done that. Can such moments influence the relations between the two countries?

- Of course, they can. Remember the scandal around the diplomatic residence in Drozdy in the suburb Minsk. The damage to the national economy was huge, since potential investors were scared off. If one of those little dirty tricks organized by the Belarusian authorities makes the cup run over, Germany will get enough power to influence Gazprom, for instance. As you understand, that would be extremely undesirable for Belarus.

In general, I believe that of the states that are not bordering on Belarus, Germany is most of all ready for close and fruitful cooperation with Belarus. But what Belarus should do is not irritate Germany but stimulate an inflow of German capital into the country, in particular, by demonstrating political goodwill. Germany and Russia, by joint efforts, could cover up to 50 percent of the investment resources that Belarus needs, including by establishing tripartite joint ventures. But I stress once again, the country has to show good political will.

- We know that Russia tries to protect the capricious international behavior of Aleksandr Lukashenko in various international institutions. And the Russians often say that Lukashenko is son of a bitch but he is still our son of a bitch. Is such indulgent - to put it mildly - attitude to their Belarusian partner justified?

- Listen to what the Kremlin duo of Maksim Sokolov and Mikhail Leontyev says [two anchors at the Russian ORT television channel]. You will understand that such indulgent attitude is already in the past. It is another matter that Russia fears that the process of political settlement inside Belarus can damage its interests. The West should be wiser in this respect, I believe. Anyway, the West will not have time and desire to deal with Belarus alone. It has to involve Russia into this process and offer a more active role to it, and Russia's position will change very quickly, even in small things.

- One of the problems in the relations between Belarus and Ukraine is ratification of Border Treaty by Belarus. Minsk conditions its ratification on Ukraine's debt remaining from the Soviet era. Is it the true cause of the situation? How long can Belarus delay the ratification?

- Belarus, and possibly some other post-Soviet countries, fears the prospect that Ukraine may become a NATO member. I think if Ukraine officially announces that it does not accede to NATO, Minsk will lose its last trump card against the ratification of the treaty.

- How do you evaluate the Belarusian government's policy of maintaining all-round contacts with Abkhazian and Trans-Dniester separatists?

- Negatively. God forbid, some separatist movements start in Belarus, in Grodno or Polesye regions. What do we do then? Separatism and terrorism cannot be supported in any way, otherwise they will hit our home.

- Who do you think could become a closest partner for Belarus in the West in the future? Not counter to Russian interests, of course.

- Strange as it may seem but it can be Russia. It will become a part of the Western world earlier than Belarus, and then it will pull Belarus into the West, just like into a gigantic whirlpool. Plus, Russia's main strategic partners - Germany, France and Great Britain. We also should not overlook the role of the Western "superpower", the United States. Its influence in the world is significant, and making friends with the US - not to the detriment of Russia, of course - would be useful for Belarus, since friendship does not do any harm. Apart from Russia, our guides in the West could the so-called newly western states - countries of Central and Eastern Europe, such as our neighbors Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and our traditional friend, the Czech Republic. All these countries have seriously advanced along the way of reform, and we should consider their positive experience.

- What will you do if Lukashenko remains in power after the presidential election this September?

- I will be actively involved in politics. I am 46 years old, I have political experience and a young competent team. We will prepare for a new election. I think we have good chances [to win the election] today. If not, we will win tomorrow for sure.