THREE REMAIN IN PRESIDENTIAL RACE

2001-08-23

THREE REMAIN IN PRESIDENTIAL RACE

On August 22 former Grodno region governor Semyon Domash officially withdrew from Belarus' presidential race in favor of Vladimir Goncharik, whom the Belarusian opposition coalition had named its single candidate. Domash has become head of a "political council" in Goncharik's election headquarters and is promised the position of prime minister with broad powers in case of Goncharik's victory.

Three candidates remain in the race - the trade union leader Goncharik, the leader of the Liberal-Democratic Party Sergei Gaidukevich and the incumbent ruler Aleksandr Lukashenko.

According to a BelaPAN poll in Minsk on August 14-17, with these three participating in the elections, 36 percent of Minsk residents were ready to vote for Lukashenko, 28 percent for Goncharik and 10 percent for Gaidukevich. Twelve percent said they would vote against all candidates, and 14 percent were undecided. If only Goncharik and Lukashenka were on the ballot, each of them would take 36 percent of the vote in Minsk, according to the poll.

The poll shows that many Domash supporters, at least in Minsk, are not yet ready to vote for Goncharik. Among the 16 percent of Minsk residents who intended to vote for Domash if there were four candidates on the ballot, only half said they would vote for Goncharik when choosing from three candidates. The rest were either undecided or intended to vote against all or supported Gaidukevich. A small number even switched to Lukashenko. It is possible that the official withdrawal of Domash and his work in Goncharik's team will change this situation.

Another result of the poll is more surprising - almost all Gaidukevich supporters in Minsk would vote for Goncharik if their candidate is not on the ballot. A recent nation-wide poll by the Minsk-based Independent Institute for Socioeconomic and Political Studies shows the same trend.

Gaidukevich is known for his changes of rhetoric. In mid-1990s his party started with supporting Lukashenko, pan-Slavic moods and integration with Russia. Later Liberal-Democrats criticized Lukashenko, although mildly and without communicating with traditional opposition parties.

Today Gaidukevich is trying to attract nationalist and liberal voters who were considered the electorate of Domash. The leader of LDP calls Goncharik a "Communist", and says that Domash was a stronger candidate. In an interview to the Belarusian service of Radio Liberty Gaidukevich even said that after his victory in the elections Belarus would join NATO irrespective of Russia's position on the issue. In order to please nationalists, he also promised to switch all record-keeping in state offices into the Belarusian language (today Belarusian and Russian are two official state languages, with Russian heavily dominating).

For Goncharik, Gaidukevich's attempts to steal some opposition votes from him are not the biggest problem. Far more dangerous is the fact that his ratings in Minsk have not grown during the last two weeks, while Lukashenko is gaining ground. If one keeps in mind that Minsk is a traditional stronghold of the opposition, Lukashenko's lead nation-wide at this point is indisputable. It seems that aggressive (and quite professional) propaganda campaign in the state media gives results. Lukashenko keeps monopoly on the Belarusian media, and Goncharik's team can respond only by a door-to-door campaign and through Russian television channels.

Goncharik has said recently that he had an agreement on access to the Russian television. With two and a half weeks left before the elections, only a real information explosion, both within the country and on the Russian channels, can give the opposition candidate chances for a victory.


Alex ZNATKEVICH, site editor
August 23