13 Percent of Minsk Residents to Vote for Authorities' Candidates

13 Percent of Minsk Residents to Vote for Authorities' Candidates

by Uladzimir PADHOL

From August 15 to 22, 2000, Minsk Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Research conducted a poll of 2,000 Minsk residents. The poll was aimed at studying the moods in society on the eve of the parliamentary elections. The results are representative of Minsk adult population.

The comparison of the poll's results with the results of the polls conducted by the institute in March-May 2000, reveals the aggravation of the socio-economic and political situation in Minsk. Which, in turn, affects the population's attitude to the forthcoming parliamentary elections. Table 1 shows the estimated voter turnout. All the figures refer to percent.


Table 1.

The number of voters who are firm in their intention to vote in the elections has dropped from 60 to 37 percent. About a quarter of the respondents are inclined to go to the polls but have not made the final decision yet. Usually, about a half of hesitant voters end up coming to the polls. Given the figures, the total number of potential voters would have been around 50 percent if the elections had been held in August. In some constituencies, the turnout would have been even lower than that. It can be supposed that the situation will change in the course of the election campaign, when voters get to know their candidates.

The second trend is a certain change in the political preferences of the respondents. (Table 2).


Table 2. If the elections were held today, what candidate would you vote for?

The table shows that the number of people ready to vote for the authorities' candidates has fallen by 12 percent. There are more pensioners in this group than in the general population of Minsk. Second, the number of respondents ready to support opposition candidates has reached 14 percent. Third, the number of those who would vote for independent candidates has grown by 4 percent. Fourth, almost every other Minsk resident has not made up his mind yet.

Table 3 shows that among those who have made their mind to vote in the elections, 24 percent are going to vote for candidates close to the authorities, 16 percent are going to vote for opposition candidates and 23 percent for independent candidates.


Table 3. Respondents' readiness to vote set against their political preferences

Reasons for the above-mentioned trends lie mostly in the further deterioration of the population's well-being. Table 4 shows that the number of respondents dissatisfied with their well-being is constantly growing. Three-quarters of the respondents complain that the price growth is not compensated for by a growth in wages, pensions and relief payments. To be objective, however, it should be noted that the second half of August (when the poll was taken) is marked by a "seasonal" aggravation of social tensions. The end of summer, when summer vacations are over, is usually marked by the lack of money. Besides, those who have school-age children, face great school expenses.


Table 4. Change in the respondents' well-being since the beginning of 2000.

The poll's results and interviews with the respondents while taking the poll reveal a growing pessimism, frustration and bitterness in society. The respondents place the blame for the hard socio-economic situation in the country on the national government bodies. (A half of them accuse the Council of Ministers.) About 14 percent are disgruntled with local authorities.

The second reason of the waning interest in the election campaign and a certain change in the political preferences lies in the elections' ambiguous status. There is still the problem of the elections' legitimacy and recognition by the international community, the election boycott, the disappointment in the results of the public dialog, etc. Asked why they would not vote in the elections, the respondents offered two main arguments. First, they said, "life will not become better after the elections", especially given the fact that parliament does not have adequate powers. Second, respondents said, it was no sense holding elections without the opposition participating. They also feared the results manipulation, etc. But the decision of the Vienna Third Technical Conference of August 30 to send a technical assessment mission to the Belarusian elections may cause some of the voters to change their position.

Comment of BelaPAN's Sociological Service Zerkalo (Mirror)

Now that the election campaign is entering the crucial stage, attempts to manipulate sociological results emerge. For example, speaking at the special session of the Minsk City Council on September 12, its chairman Uladzimir Papkouski said that according to the poll by the Minsk Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Research, 80 percent of Minsk residents should come to the polls, though he was well aware of the poll's true results. In his report, Papkouski summed the points in the first three columns of Table 1: "I will vote in the elections" (37 percent) + "I will rather vote" (24 percent) + "Hard to answer" (17 percent). This is an alarming signal that further falsifications are possible during the election campaign.