65 Percent of Belarusians Did Not Have Enough Information About Candidates for Parliament

65 Percent of Belarusians Did Not Have Enough Information About Candidates for Parliament

by the Independent Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Studies

In October 2000, the Independent Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS) conducted a national poll of 1,461 respondents aged 16 and older. According to the IISEPS, the sampling error does not exceed 3 percent. Some results of the poll are given below.

BelaPAN note: Since the decimals were omitted as having no significant effect, the total does not always equal 100 percent. We also point out that the respondents in the poll were aged 16 and older whereas a person is eligible for voting at 18. Therefore, the sampling error margin stated in the poll needs correcting.

Table 1. What forms of parliamentary campaigning did candidates for parliament use in your constituency? (All the figures refer to percent).

Table 2. From what sources did you get information about the candidates and their programs?

Table 3. If you voted in the elections, when did you make up your mind to go to the polls?

Table 4. If you voted in the elections, when did you make up your mind who to cast your vote for?

Table 5. Did you have sufficient information about the candidates who ran for parliament in your constituency and about their election programs?

Table 6*. Attitude to voting depending on the voters' awareness about the candidates and their programs.

*The table should be read horizontally.

Table 7. If you voted in the elections, for whom did you vote on October 15?

Table 8*. Voting depending on the voters' awareness about the candidates and their programs

* The table should be read horizontally

During the recent parliamentary elections it was repeatedly said that the election campaign was allegedly boring and low-profile. Table 1 shows that candidates for parliament used mostly traditional campaigning methods. Almost a quarter of the voters did not encounter any campaigning at all. Leaflets are traditionally the main source of information about the candidates (58 percent). Only 6 percent of the respondents said that candidates visited them at home during the campaign.

The Belarusian voters showed a rather careless approach toward the October 15 voting. Only 26 percent of the respondents said they had made up their mind about going to the polls long before the elections. And 15 percent admitted to having decided to go to the polls only on the election day. Table 3 also shows that forecasts about the effectiveness of the official propaganda were correct: during the last week prior to the elections, as many as 23 percent of the respondents decided to vote in the elections. That last week was marked by a peak of the state-run mass media propaganda activity.

Many voters (about 20 percent) did not decide who to vote for till the last moment. (To compare, the world standard is about 10-15 percent). Given the figures, there is no use speculating whether it was a deliberate and motivated choice. In the run-up to the presidential election, it is worth considering the fact that 30 percent of the respondents made up their mind who they would vote for, 5-6 days prior to the elections, as shown in Table 4.

Table 5 provides additional illustration to show whether the voters made a deliberate choice at the polls. It reveals that almost two-thirds of the respondents did not have sufficient information about the candidates for parliament and their programs. Of those who voted in the elections, 56 percent did not have such information (Table 6).

On the face of it, it seems that faced with the lack of information, the voters made a blind choice at the polls. But in fact their voting was based on their ideological beliefs. Aliaksandr Lukashenka's supporters voted for candidates who support the current authorities. His opponents voted against all or for candidates who promised to fight to change the current political course (Table 7). The voters' awareness about the candidates did not affect their choice much. The ideological beliefs of a candidate was a priority for the voters and substituted the full information about him. Table 8 shows that more than a half of those who voted for a regime opponent did not have sufficient information about him and his program. The same is true with those who voted for a candidate who supports the authorities. The survey revealed that the pro-Lukashenka or anti-Lukashenka factor greatly influenced the voters' behavior with regard to candidates for parliament. Having established the candidate's political preferences, voters do not bother studying the candidate's programs and promises. It is evident that if the presidential elections follow the same black-and-white pattern, the democratic candidate's chances for victory will be small.