Forecasts and Results of Parliamentary Elections

2000-10-24

Forecasts and Results of Parliamentary Elections

(Statistical data compiled by Leanid MIKHEJCHYKAU, head of BelaPAN Sociological Service Zerkalo (Mirror))

Different Belarusian sociological agencies conducted public opinion polls on the eve of October 15 parliamentary elections in Belarus. The sociological forecasts and the results provided by the Central Election Commission are given in comparison.

Results of national sociological polls

Independent Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS). Headed by Doctor of Sociology Aleh Manajeu

1. A national poll of 1,495 respondents conducted in April 2000;

2. A national poll of 1,493 respondents conducted in June 2000 in cooperation with the Center for Social and Environmental Research headed by Candidate of Philosophy Alena Barkouskaja;

3. A national poll of 1,549 respondents conducted in July 2000 in cooperation with the Center for Social and Environmental Research;

4. A national poll of 1,448 people conducted in August 2000.

Are you going to vote in the parliamentary elections in fall 2000? (All the figures refer to percent)

Sociological center NOVAK. Headed by Doctor of Sociology Andrej Vardamatski

1. A national poll of 1,101 respondents aged 18 and older conducted from May 27 to June 4;

2. A national poll of 1,082 respondents conducted from July 27 to August 2. The data include the results of interviewing both throughout the country and in Minsk. Those surveyed in Minsk accounted for some 180 people (the figure corresponds to 16 percent of Belarus' adult population), which is insufficient for the capital. Thus the results received in Minsk should be taken with caution.

3. A national poll of 1,099 respondents conducted from September 12 to 20.

In the latest poll, 73 percent of the respondents said they would vote in the elections. Commenting on the poll's results, Kanstantsin Skuratovich, a correspondent of the independent weekly Belorussky rynok (issue N40) said that "the population's readiness to vote in the parliamentary elections is overestimated". This statement later proved correct.

Are you going to vote in the parliamentary elections in fall 2000?

Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences. Headed by Doctor of Sociology Heorhi Yavelkin

A national poll of 3,072 respondents aged 18 and older was taken from August 28 to September 18. Of these, over 2,000 respondents were interviewed throughout the country and about 1,000 respondents in Minsk.

Are you going to vote in the parliamentary elections in fall 2000?

According to the Central Election Commission (CEC), 60.6 percent of eligible voters voted in the elections. (The CEC data is represented in the column Result)

Estimated voter turnout throughout the nation in August-September

Aliaksandr Lukashenka's prediction, which he made on October 15 at the polling station, proved true to some extent. He said, "Our Belarusians will come, a half of them and more... I think that more than 70 percent will come to the polls."

More than a half of the voters came to the polls, but not more than 70 percent. It seems that speaking about 70 percent, the head of state used the results of the NOVAK's polls, which for several months predicted a more than 70-percent voter turnout. Both Lukashenka and Novak were wrong.

The IISEPS and the Institute of Sociology predicted a turnout of more than 50 percent. Judging the opposition's claims, the sociologists did not take into account that the final results could be "adjusted" by the presidential officials. In the given conditions, no sociological agency could have predicted the unexpected 61-percent turnout declared by the CEC. Zerkalo believes that a 53-54 percent turnout is more plausible.

The "forecasts" of the NOVAK center can be explained either by its staff's incompetence or the big money received from a certain "Big Client" for producing results that could mould the public opinion both in the country and abroad in the way that suited the client most.

Results of sociological polls in Minsk

Minsk Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Research (MISEPR). Headed by Uladzimir BABKOU, member of the National Academy of Science, Doctor of History

A poll of 2,000 Minsk residents conducted from August 15 to 22, 2000, concerning the estimated voter turnout.

Commenting on the results, the pollsters noted, "The number of voters who are firm in their intention to vote in the elections is 37 percent and 24 percent are inclined to go to the polls but have not made the final decision yet. Usually, about a half of hesitant voters end up coming to the polls. Given the figures, the total number of potential voters would have been around 50 percent if the elections had been held in August. In some constituencies, the turnout would have been even lower than that."

BelaPAN Sociological Service Zerkalo (Mirror). Headed by Leanid MIKHEJCHYKAU, Candidate of Philosophy

A poll of 600 Minsk residents aged 18 and older conducted from October 2 to 3, 2000

Are you going to vote in the parliamentary elections on October 15, 2000?

According to the CEC, 49 percent of Minsk residents voted in the elections. (The CEC data is represented in the column Result)

Estimated voter turnout in Minsk in August-September

The forecasts made by the Minsk Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Research (about 50 percent) and the Institute of Sociology (49 pefcent) are rather close to that declared by the CEC. But the real turnout must have been different from their forecasts and the officially declared 49 percent. Unlike the data for Belarusian regions, which was made public on the evening of the election day on October 15, the turnout in Minsk became known only at 10 a.m. on October 16. In the night of October 16, the voting results for 18 Minsk electoral districts must have been changed into 49 percent. Zerkalo believed on the eve of the elections the turnout to be 50-55 percent. But the authorities' lies and arrogance and attempts to make people go to the polls on the eve of the elections must have backfired on October 15.

Some voters make their voting decision shortly before the elections. But they did not have much choice at most polls. Some voters said that they had no one to cast their vote for. Aspiring to ensure the sufficient turnout, officials and the CEC did an ill service to Lukashenka. They succeeded in rural districts but failed in cities. Therefore, the real turnout was short of 49 percent. The 49 percent is the result of the night work of election commissions and presidential representatives. Incidentally, on September 14, the national daily Narodnaya Gazeta quoted the chairman of the Minsk City Council Uladzimir Papkouski as saying that according to the poll by the Minsk Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Research, 80 percent of Minsk residents should come to the polls. Thus officials undermine people's trust in the authorities and Lukashenka.