Minsk Residents Expect New Politicians to Improve Life

Minsk Residents Expect New Politicians to Improve Life

by Anatol RUBANAU, Doctor of Sociology

From August 15 to 22, Minsk Research Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Problems conducted a poll among 2,000 Minsk residents. The poll showed the growing dissatisfaction with their well-being and the authorities, which revealed in the falling trust in all social institutions, especially state ones. Only the church enjoys a positive trust index (the trust-mistrust ratio), although its rating fell by 13 percentage points from March 1999 to August 2000.

Table 1 shows that of all the institutions mentioned, the respondents place a higher degree of trust in the president (26 percent), the army (24 percent), independent mass media (23 percent), businessmen (21 percent) and the enterprises' administration (20 percent), with the church leading at 40 percentage points.

Table 1. Trust in social institutions. (All the figures refer to percent of respondents).

Table 2** shows a considerable fall in the population's trust in various social institutions during the last 18 months: the army by 11 percent, the police by 6 percent, the enterprises' administration by 6 percent, the Council of Ministers by 4 percent. Only the state-run mass media have enjoyed a slight 2 percent increase.

**The results in tables below are compared to results of similar polls' conducted by the Institute in March-May, 2000.

Table 2. Dynamics of trust in social institutions. (All the figures refer to percent of respondents)

The respondents' pessimism revealed most vividly in their answers to the question, "Do you hope for an improvement of the socio-economic situation in the country? If you do, how soon will the situation improve?" The respondents gave the following answers: "I hope the situation will improve in the near future" - 17 percent; "I think it will improve in the distant future" - 47 percent; "I do not hope it will improve" - 36 percent. Respondents from different social groups offered similar opinions on the problem.

The respondents were also asked who they place their hopes on. Table 3 shows that those who have not lost hope for a better life, rely above all on themselves or on new persons in politics.

Table 3. Who do you think can improve your life? (All the figures refer to percent of respondents, several answers were possible)

Given the approaching parliamentary elections, the population's focus on new politicians, which has been a sustained trend for several years, is worth attention. It means that most of those who emerged in politics in the early 90s, have reached the peak of political popularity or are losing it. Therefore, the fall elections can become a watershed in Belarus' political life. Given a high social demand for new names, newly elected MPs have a chance to enter big politics and in the course of time, assume the leading roles. In this respect, those politicians and parties who boycott the elections seem to have taken the wrong path.

Candidates for parliament use different slogans in their election campaign. The poll tried to define which of them enjoy the greatest popularity with the voters. The slogans were divided into three groups: domestic policy, foreign policy and military security slogans. The poll showed that slogans concerning the country's domestic policy are of the greatest significance for the respondents.

Table 4 shows which slogans the respondents considered most appealing: first, social welfare (wage, pensions and benefit payments increase second, economic reforms, including encouragement of private business; third, law enforcement and crime combat.

Table 4. Support of slogans on domestic policy (All the figures refer to percent of respondents, several answers were possible)

Social welfare (pensions, benefit payments, wages) 64 Economic reforms 41 Enforcement of order in all spheres 39 Law enforcement, crime combat 35 Stabilization of the Belarusian rubel, single exchange rate 32 Fighting corruption 27 Encouragement of private business 27 Keeping civic peace 23 Active housing construction 22 Encouragement of science 22 Opposition's access to the electronic mass media 18 Cut in expenses on law enforcement agencies and defense 15 Parliamentary republic 11

It is important that the mentioned problems and ways to solve them should be reflected in the candidates' programs. The candidates should also bear in mind that problems of well-being and law enforcement especially concern pensioners. Slogans promoting economic changes and business development will strike a chord with businessmen, students, technical personnel and employees.

Belarus' equitable cooperation with all the countries is the most popular foreign policy slogan, while Belarus' neutral and nuclear free status enjoys the greatest popularity of all the military security slogans.