Sociology
Number of Belarusians Willing to Vote Dropped by 12 Percentage Points
2000-09-12
Number of Belarusians Willing to Vote Dropped by 12 Percentage Points
by the Independent Institute for Socio-Economic
and Political Studies (IISEPS)
This August, the IISEPS conducted a national
poll of 1,448 people. The sampling error margin did not exceed 3
percent. Some results of the poll are given below.
Table 1. Are you going to vote in the parliamentary
elections in fall 2000?
(All the figures refer to percent).
|
Answer proposed
|
April 2000
|
June 2000
|
July 2000
|
August 2000
|
|
1. Yes, I will vote in the elections
|
53
|
60
|
66
|
54
|
|
2. I will make a decision depending
on the political situation during the election campaign
|
15
|
17
|
18
|
15
|
|
3. No, I will not vote in the elections
|
10
|
11
|
10
|
12
|
|
4. No specific answer
|
22
|
12
|
6
|
19
|
Table 2. If the authorities fail to meet the conditions set by
the opposition and the OSCE, will you vote in the parliamentary
elections in fall 2000?
|
Answer proposed
|
July 2000
|
August 2000
|
|
1. Yes, I will vote in the elections
|
51
|
44
|
|
2. No, I will not vote in the elections
|
16
|
18
|
|
3. No specific answer
|
32
|
38
|
Table 3. If the opposition decides to boycott the parliamentary
elections in case the Belarusian authorities fail to meet the conditions
set by the opposition and the OSCE, what will be your attitude to
the boycott?
|
Answer proposed
|
July 2000
|
August 2000
|
|
1. I will not support the boycott, because
I believe that one should vote in any case
|
51
|
42
|
|
2. I will support the boycott
|
12
|
14
|
|
3. No specific answer
|
38
|
44
|
Table 4. If the international community says prior to the elections
that it will not recognize the results of the parliamentary elections,
because the authorities have not met the conditions of the opposition
and the OSCE, will you vote in the elections?
|
Answer proposed
|
November 1999
|
July 2000
|
August 2000
|
|
1. Yes, I will vote in the elections
|
43
|
48
|
39
|
|
2. No, I will not vote in the elections
|
20
|
19
|
18
|
|
3. No specific answer
|
37
|
33
|
43
|
The tables show a drop in the voters' willingness to vote in the
parliamentary elections. Those who quite recently were going to
vote and now have changed their mind (or are in two minds) have
joined the wavering group, not the election opponents (this group
is not growing yet).
Probably, the active boycott campaign initiated by the opposition
makes a certain impact on the voters' attitude to voting in the
fall elections. The campaign generates doubts among some voters,
but has not won their support entirely yet.
The hesitant voters' behavior might depend on several factors. First,
on the clear and final position of the international community on
the elections (the August 30 decision of the OSCE Third Technical
Conference can be interpreted as supporting both the elections and
the boycott). It will also depend on the boycott organizers' further
efforts and the counter-campaign by the authorities aimed at wooing
the voters to the polls. Finally, it will depend on the election
campaign of democratic candidates (including independent ones).
So far, those going to vote in the elections far outweigh their
opponents, but as the hesitant voters make from one to two thirds
of the voters, it is too early to make an accurate forecast today.
