According to the Central Election Commission, the voter turnout in the first round was 60.6 percent. The opposition's figure, which was voiced by Mechaslau Hryb, chairman of the Central Coordinating Committee on Election Monitoring, was about 20 percent lower than the official one. As a proof, the opposition cited violations recorded by Hryb's observers and the Belarusian Helsinki Committee.

There obviously was ballot rigging during the elections. Yet it was not as outrageous as the opposition tried to picture. Its motives are clear: otherwise it would have to recognize that the idea of boycotting the "electoral farce" failed. And it failed indeed. One of the questions in the IISEPS' poll was "What was the reason for your not voting in the October 15 elections?" Only 2.9 percent answered that they "supported the boycott organized by the opposition parties".

The opposition's idea to hold a popular referendum as an alternative to the elections has been forgotten. The opposition expected the people to stand up for the four conditions of the international community on holding fair elections.

"The four well-known conditions" became a cliche in the opposition press. A narrow circle of political and journalist elite knows them almost by heart. But if the popular referendum did take place, opposition activists would have found it hard to explain them to politically unaware people somewhere in the province. One should concede that common people are interested in more down-to-earth things than "the four well-known conditions of the OSCE".

There is no use fighting when the fight is over. But there is a chance to prepare for a new and much more important battle. The "electoral farce" is over. The presidential race lies ahead. It is naive to expect the head of state to create milder conditions for his opponents than they were during the parliamentary elections. So if the regime's opponents really intend to fight, they will have to play by hard rules with plenty of foul play.

It is high time to draw lessons. In particular, the opposition should have long rejected an ideal image of an average Belarusian voter. The opposition believes that most voters by definition aspire for democracy and market economy. The only task, therefore, is to beat the reactionary propaganda masterminded by Uladzimir Zamiatalin, Belarus' ideology cardinal, with the progressive democratic propaganda.

But it is easier to say than to do. Polls show that people's views are more conservative than those preached by opposition politicians. Looking several years back, one should admit that the people chose Lukashenka to be the nation's leader, although national democrats spearheaded by Zianon Pazniak's Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) enjoyed the peak of popularity then. During the presidential elections, the official propaganda was aimed equally against the BPF and Lukashenka. The latter, with his simplistic slogans managed to win the popular support.

There are alarming signals showing that the opposition can repeat mistakes of the 1994 elections. The first is the split in the democratic camp. The second is the prevalence of dogmatic and sectarian trends. The opposition camp lacks skillful political technologists, who are vitally important because political stagecraft will determine the outcome of the presidential battle.

The opposition will have to give up the ideal notion of a democratic candidate that was molded in accordance with narrow party plans. They need a real and pragmatic figure that would not be associated either with Western centers of influence or opposition-staged Freedom Marches, or with economic "shock therapy". At the same time, the candidate should be a real alternative to the current leader who pushed a country with an enviable potential to the world periphery.

There is another detail to be taken into account while preparing for the presidential elections. The nationalist opposition simplifies the matter when it presents Lukashenka as the core of the problem. It is not enough to replace the ruling regime. The opposition should first deal with its inner problems.