According to the preliminary data of the Central Commission for Elections and Referenda (CEC), the required minimum of 50 percent of the registered voters was exceeded in 96 out of the 110 electoral districts. Of these, 43 candidates received an absolute majority (more than 50 percent of the vote) in their districts and are to be declared elected. To form a capable parliament, 31 more candidates are to be elected in the second round of the elections. It is quite likely that the required 31 candidates will be elected, given that the voter threshold for the second round is 25 percent.

The opposition faced a bitter disappointment in the elections. In spite of all its efforts, the "electoral farce" organized by Aliaksandr Lukashenka did take place on October 15. The voter turnout proved lower than the 70 percent forecast by the pro-presidential media and Lukashenka himself. Only 60.6 percent of voters came to the polls in the first round of elections for the House of Representatives of the Belarusian National Assembly. The real results deviated from expectations not due to political reasons, but rather because of a poor organization and a barefaced campaign. Urging the voters to go to the polls, the official mass media failed to point out to them that the voting was to be over by 8 p.m. instead of 10 p.m., like in the previous election campaigns. So some voters, unaware of the fact, went to the polls after they were closed. As a result, the authorities robbed themselves of two hours of voting, which could have brought about several more percentage points of the voter turnout. Still, the authorities managed to organized a sufficient turnout in 96 electoral districts, which once again proves that the administrative resource in Belarus is limitless. The authorities can be suspected of an overt electoral fraud only in Minsk. Two hours before the closure of the polls the CEC reported that only 38.8 percent of the eligible voters had cast their ballots. By 8 p.m., to believe the CEC, the voter turnout grew to 49 percent. The CEC chairperson Lidzija Yarmoshyna explained a sharp rise in voters' activity shortly before the polls' closure by the fact that many people returned to Minsk in the evening after a weekend at their country houses and dachas.

In general, the elections went smoothly, without bright election campaigns and political scandals. All the electoral battles calmed down a month before the election day, after the majority of democratic opposition candidates were denied registration. It became obvious then that the House of Representatives would be open only for those whom the authorities wanted to see there.

The results of the first round suggest that the new House of Representatives might become more pro-presidential than the outgoing one, if it is possible at all. Among those elected to the National Assembly lower house are 22 members of the preceding House of Representatives, members of the pro-presidential Belarusian Patriotic Youth Union, presidential local representatives, officials of the State Control Committee and the Committee for State Security (KGB).

Prior to the elections the opposition split into those who decided to run for parliament and those who advocated an election boycott. The boycott failed. According to the official data, only 14 districts had an insufficient turnout for the election results to be declared valid.

Nevertheless, the organizers of the boycott were quick to declare the failure of the parliamentary elections in Belarus and their victory. But the opposition's influence on the October 15 events should not be overestimated, because Minsk and other Belarusian cities traditionally show a low voter turnout. The opposition-organized demonstration on October 14, which promoted the anti-voting campaign, did not gather many supporters, either.

It is now to be expected how the international community will assess the election campaign. Whether the election results will be recognized equally concerns both the presidential and opposition camps. On the one hand, the non-recognition of the election results will encourage the opposition and might lead it to a possible victory at the presidential elections in 2001. If, on the contrary, the international community recognizes the parliamentary elections, it will help Lukashenka win the presidential elections.

According to the Technical Assessment Mission of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, the parliamentary elections in Belarus cannot be recognized free and democratic as they "failed to meet international standards for democratic elections, including those formulated in the 1990 Copenhagen Document of the OSCE."

Still, Europe leaves the door open for Lukashenka. To do so, the Parliamentary Troika said, the authorities are to comply with the four criteria for free and democratic elections, including the establishment of meaningful powers for Parliament. The Parliamentary Troika urges the Belarusian authorities to do it well in advance of the presidential elections. Thus Europe made it clear that the future presidential elections will be a key factor in the legitimacy problem.

The authorities have not fully won the battle for parliament but have not lost it either: the new parliament has been elected and will work. There will be no new parliamentary elections in the near future. Perhaps, the House of Representatives will remain recognized only by Belarus' traditional allies, first of all by Russia, and not recognized by the civilized world. The West will wait for the first session of the newly elected parliament to see it work, before giving its assessment of the events in Belarus. Anyway, the recognition of parliament does not matter much. The main elections - the presidential ones - are yet to come.