Independent trade unions that are not BFTU members do not raise the authorities' concern yet, being too weak and small in number. For example, the Free Trade Unions of Belarus have 9,000 members. But the numerous BFTU causes the authorities' headache.

When the authorities failed in their attempts to dismiss the leaders of the main industrial trade unions, they resorted to the tactics of creating "alternative" trade unions at enterprises. These organizations, which are created by the enterprises' directors, are to undermine the BFTU. In their efforts to do away with the BFTU, the authorities use every method possible, including those provided by the Presidential Administration and law enforcement agencies.

Ironically, the authorities use in their actions the Polish experience of the 1980s, when the trade union Solidarity was organized from independent and self-ruling industrial trade unions. But the Solidarity' goals differed from those pursued by the Belarusian authorities. Having destroyed official trade unions, the Solidarity changed the political system, too. In Belarus, the newly created trade unions, which should be independent of the BFTU, are to strengthen the current regime. It seems that the authorities are trying to mould trade unions into a new Labor Front, in accord with Lukashenka's ideas of presidential power, which is reminiscent of those prevailing in some European countries in the 1930s.

The Bolsheviks considered trade unions the driving belt of the proletariat's dictatorship. To make the Belarusian trade unions the driving belt of the current regime, its leadership should be replaced, the authorities believe.

Apprehensive of its fate, the BFTU presidium urged the trade unions on October 13 to oppose attempts to split the trade union movement. It also called upon its members not to give in to threats and intimidation. The BFTU head Uladzimir Hancharyk challenged the head of state by appointing Aliaksandr Starykevich, a prominent critic of Aliaksandr Lukashenka's regime, editor-in-chief of the BFTU weekly Belaruski chas.

The October 13 address came too late. After October 1 wage increase, urges of trade union leaders may fall on deaf ears. The decision of the International Labor Organization not to send its observers to study the situation with trade unions in Belarus before the parliamentary elections, was a setback for the BFTU, too.

In its propaganda against the trade unions, the authorities have recently been emphasizing the subversive activities of the American Federation of Labor - Congress of Industrial Organizations. This July, the United States suspended the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in trade with Belarus, due to violations of the trade unions rights in this country.

It is unclear yet who the authorities want to place as a new head of the BFTU. One of possible candidates is head of the Presidential Administration Mikhail Miasnikovich, who seems to have got used to reshuffles during his service in Lukashenka's team. He even put up with having his enemy Uladzimir Zamiatalin appointed his first deputy. Some, however, interpret Miasnikovich's meekness as the attempt to lull Lukashenka's vigilance. It is also rumored that Miasnikovich has serious support in Moscow.

The BFTU Congress can make a considerable impact on the election campaign and the political situation in Belarus. To weaken the positions of the BFTU head Hancharyk, the authorities denied him registration as a candidate for parliament. His appeal with the Supreme Court was dismissed. So the congress will become a crucial test for the trade unions leader.