The major European institutions - European Union, Council of Europe, OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) - continue to demonstrate their strong political involvement in the ongoing uphill struggle of democratic forces in Belarus. The Third International Technical Conference on the issue of international observation of Belarusian parliamentary elections, scheduled for October 15, 2000, was held under OSCE chairmanship in Vienna on August 30, 2000. On the occasion of this conference, representatives of European institutions, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, underlined their political interest in assisting Belarus to rejoin European democracies in their concluding recommendations. The continued engagement of these institutions is neither the result of foreign intervention nor is it dictated by economic interest, as some circles in Belarus suspect. The deliberations at this conference were guided by the four criteria, which had been developed as main benchmarks for a decision on the participation of international observers in the elections:

- transparency of the electoral process (i.e., adequate opposition representation in the Central Electoral Commission and at the regional and local commission levels

- regular access of opposition parties to the state run electronic mass media;

- substantial enhancement of functions for the parliament that is to be elected;

- confidence building measures; that is, cessation of repressive measures used against political opponents.

The OSCE Advisory and Monitoring Group in Belarus (OSCE AMG) has been active since early 1998. It has continuously co-operated with the government, the Advisory Council of opposition political parties, and with non-governmental organizations in an ongoing effort to facilitate the resolution of the November 1996 constitutional controversy and to bring about a meaningful dialogue between the opposing political forces. It was hoped that satisfactory framework conditions for free and democratic elections in the country would be established by way of such talks.

Public opinion polls confirm broad support for the need to enhance the functions of the Belarusian parliament, which at present is without any of the classic functions or rights of a democratic parliament. The polls also confirm support for opening the state run electronic mass media to opposition political parties and independent non-governmental organizations on a regular basis. These popular expectations have been met to only a very limited degree by the government. This has also proven true in the field of confidence building measures.

Opinion polls also indicate that the majority of citizens seek change through elections. They are opposed to the falsification of their collective decision for the sake of holding on to power. Concerns that such manipulations are likely to take place are growing. Therefore, the appeal of an electoral boycott does not remain unheard.


Manipulation of Elections - Betrayal of Citizens and Disaster for the Government on the International Stage

A constant flow of reports is reaching the OSCE AMG, complaining about violations by governmental organs of the electoral legislative and administrative framework. For instance, the continued interference of state bodies into the work of the electoral commissions, which are supposed to act independently and not under governmental instructions, have been noted. Considering the large number of independent candidates, the proportion of independent members to the district electoral commission has turned out to be very small indeed. According to reports from various sources, the government encourages regional and local authorities to ensure that governmentally supported candidates emerge as winners in the elections.

The government will never admit such interventions openly. However, the evidence is very strong that such actions are taking place a practice inherited from the past and unfortunately still in force. The indications of undue interference justify broadly shared concerns that manipulations are to be expected at the weak points of the electoral process - in the early voting procedures and through the extensive use of mobile ballot boxes on election day itself as well during the counting process.

A controversy has arisen regarding the legal basis of actions taken by the authorities against those that plead for boycott of the elections and support their campaign by the distribution of material. The electoral code no longer forbids boycott appeals, but the administrative law still contains such provisions (Article 167, part 3), The Minister of Interior is threatening to apply this administrative law in this respect. Immediate action is needed to harmonize the administrative law with the electoral code; otherwise the credibility of the government will again be at stake. The parliament has already adopted such amendments to the Administrative Code. Still needed is, however, the signature of the President.

In the light of these concerns, the international community has agreed to send a technical assessment mission from ODIHR (OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights headquartered in Warsaw). The technical mission is charged with promoting compliance of the actual conduct of the election process with the letter and the spirit of the electoral code, in co-operation with the OSCE Advisory and Monitoring Group. This assessment team will not actually observe the elections. They will assess the framework conditions as well as the actions of the centrist government system that has so many tools for direct and indirect pressure at its disposal. Governmental representatives can and do exert pressure in order to discourage potential independent candidates. They utilize administrative means to harass and frustrate the nomination of unwanted candidates to electoral commission and to the parliamentary elections.

Therefore, the Advisory and Monitoring Group has developed a formatted reporting system in order to raise such complaints instantaneously with the Central Electoral Commission and with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The prestige of the President is at stake. He has assumed personal responsibility for the fair conduct of the upcoming elections.


ODIHR Technical Assessment Mission and Observers from European Parliamentary Institutions

Given the long standing engagement of European parliaments and parliamentary assemblies in Belarus, the Third International Technical Conference has requested these parliamentary bodies to continue their valuable consultative and monitoring work on the occasion of the upcoming elections and to act as observers for their respective institutions. They will base their political assessment of the elections on the results of the work of the ODIHR assessment team, on the assessment by the Advisory and Monitoring Group in Belarus, as well as on the findings of the countrywide independent domestic observation work.

In the light of the assessment offered by these political institutions and of the functions of the parliament to be elected the European institutions and individual governments will review their relations with Belarus. These have been at a very low level since the controversial events of November 1996. The other pending issues - access of opposition political parties to the state run electronic mass media and confidence building measures - will also have their role to play in this review process. The review process, itself, will take quite some time, not least because of the time needed for an appropriate shift of responsibilities from the president to the parliament by way of constitutional amendments.

Government and opposition have received the recommendations, with regard to their role in the upcoming elections, of the recent Technical Conference of the international institutions more or less positively. However, the government spoke of "international observers", a formula not used in the final version of the Vienna document. In contrast, the opposition speakers hail the result of the conference because of the denial to send international observers. This debate is political hair splitting. The fact is that ODIHR comes in a technical support capacity.

The team members will not be registered as international observers, contrary to what Mrs. Yermoshina, the Chairperson of the Central Electoral Commission, was saying publicly on September 7, 2000. The European parliamentary, delegations, who will register as observers, on the other hand, will present their findings directly to their own legislative bodies. The findings of these delegations will carry great political weight in a political environment where parliaments, rather than governments, play the dominant role. Indeed, this balance of power is alien to today's Belarus, where everything seems to depend on the president and where citizens have a very low opinion of their parliamentary representatives.

The heated debate among opposition leaders about the utility of now participating in the parliamentary elections versus exclusively participating in next year's presidential elections indicates a difference in political culture and perception among leading figures within the opposition. Observers and members of the democratic movement are concerned about the loss of unity amongst themselves. Will this unity be restored after the parliamentary elections? It is too early to pass judgement on this issue. It will depend very much on the outcome of the elections and on the extent of documented manipulation of the elections by the government.

If - as a result of the ongoing monitoring of the documented influence of the governmental structure on the election process - independent candidates and candidates rooted in democratic parties are eliminated from the race before or during the process, the proponents of the boycott strategy will gain the upper hand.


International Credibility of President Lukashenka at Stake

On election day, the national and international credibility of President Lukashenka is at stake. Documented manipulation will have a devastating political effect on the review of the relations between major European institutions, governments, and Belarus, as well as on public opinion in the democratic states of Europe and North America. The government is well advised to immediately change its present policy of direct and indirect pressure on electoral commissions and potential candidates. Evidence of such pressure reinforces the concerns and fears of what is to be expected on election day.